EDITORIAL: The latest figures released by the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA) once again highlight the relentless downward trajectory the cotton crop has suffered over recent years. As of July 15, only 297,751 bales of raw cotton had reached ginning factories nationwide, down from 442,041 bales recorded during the same period in 2024, a steep 32 percent drop.
Notably, the 2024 figure itself reflected a 48.48 percent decline from 2023 when 858,007 bales were processed. Taken over the corresponding periods in the last two years, therefore, raw cotton production has plummeted by an alarming 65 percent. This sustained collapse is a stark indicator of the deepening crisis facing a crop of strategic importance — one that remains vital to the country’s agricultural economy, textile industry and overall economic health, contributing over half of foreign exchange earnings and supporting millions of livelihoods across farming and industry.
A deeper dive into the PGCA figures reveals that while Punjab managed to show some improvement over the past year, registering a 27 percent increase in cotton arrivals, the sharpest declines occurred in Sindh and Balochistan, where raw cotton production fell by 53 and 54 percent, respectively. Even within Punjab, however, performance remained patchy, with certain districts reporting significantly lower yields than others.
And nowhere was this collapse more dramatic than in Rahim Yar Khan. Once renowned for its premium cotton, the district has, over the past two decades, shifted increasingly towards the cultivation of sugarcane to support the six major sugar mills located here.
Cotton has been systematically pushed out, with powerful sugar interests driving policy incentives that have made sugarcane cultivation far more lucrative. As a result, the district witnessed an over 99 percent decline in cotton arrivals as compared to the same time last year.
It is noteworthy that even apart from the damaging impact of the water-guzzling sugarcane crop, cotton’s decline is also rooted in a range of entrenched structural issues.
Chief among them is the continued reliance on manual labour for cotton-picking due to limited mechanisation, making the process not just labour-intensive, but also inefficient and prone to contamination, ultimately affecting both yield and fibre quality.
Adding to the challenge is the overwhelming dependence on genetically modified Bt cotton seeds, which over time have lost their pest-resistant quality. Despite ongoing government efforts to reduce reliance on Bt cotton, progress has been sluggish as resource-strapped smallholder farmers often lack the financial capacity and technical support needed to adopt more resilient and high-performing seed varieties.
It must also be noted that over 90 percent of Pakistan’s cotton is grown on small farms under five hectares, as highlighted in a report by the International Labour Organisation earlier this year. Such fragmented landholdings limit land-use efficiency and hinder the adoption of modern agricultural practices and machinery, thereby constraining productivity.
The situation has also been worsened by the devastating impact of climate change, with extreme temperatures, erratic rainfall patterns and deteriorating soil quality taking a visible toll.
The continued erosion of a crop that remains the lifeblood of Pakistan’s agricultural economy and export base requires urgent policy interventions and structural reforms. Mechanisation must be prioritised through targeted subsidies that enable smallholders to access modern equipment, while the over-reliance on Bt cotton needs to be phased out through serious investments in R&D that help develop locally adapted, pest-resistant, climate-resilient, high-yield seed varieties.
Most critically, the government must confront the unchecked expansion of sugarcane in cotton-growing regions through decisive regulatory action. Distortive incentives favouring sugarcane must be dismantled, and agricultural policy reoriented to support a crop of far greater strategic value. Without such bold realignments, the cotton crop will remain mired in decline.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
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