1QFY25: With IMF in Islamabad, Punjab revises budget figures, now posts Rs40bn surplus

In a rather surprising development, the Ministry of Finance has revised its fiscal operation data for the July-September period, saying that Punjab – Pakistan’s most populous province – reported a budget surplus of nearly Rs40 billion in contrast to the previously reported deficit of over Rs160 billion.

“Ministry of Finance endorses the views of Government of Punjab on achievement of a provincial surplus of Rs40 billion during Q1 for FY 2024-25,” read a statement released by the Finance Division on Friday.

“Government of Punjab has remained one of the most important contributors to provincial surplus during recent years; for FY 2024-25 it has budgeted a provincial surplus of Rs630 billion as agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF),” it added.

Following the correction, the government closed the first quarter of the current fiscal year (July-Sept 2024-25) with a budget surplus of Rs1,896.01 billion, an increase of Rs200 billion, compared to Rs1,696.01 billion uploaded earlier by the finance ministry.

At the time, among provinces, only Punjab had recorded a budget deficit of Rs160.16 billion.

Sindh saw a budget surplus of Rs131.09 billion, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa registered a budget surplus of Rs103.75 billion, and Balochistan created a provincial surplus of Rs85 billion.

However, now with the revision in figures, the budget surplus ratio to GDP has improved to 1.5%, up from the earlier 1.4%.

The ministry highlighted that it has updated Q1 fiscal operations figures with the IMF on 14th November, 2024, and updated the revised figures on its website, showing a provincial surplus of Rs40 billion for Punjab.

“It is further pointed out that as per the revised figures agreed with the IMF; the Government of Pakistan has managed to achieve a cumulative provincial surplus of Rs360 billion against a target of Rs342 billion agreed with the IMF for Q1 for FY 2024-25,” read the statement.

It is pertinent to mention that achieving a provincial surplus was among the key requirements assigned by the Washington-based lender.

An IMF delegation, led by its mission chief Nathan Porter, is currently in Pakistan for a staff visit to discuss recent developments and the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) programme performance to date.