MOSCOW: Russian wheat export prices continued to rise last week as volatile weather conditions made crop forecasts difficult.
Combined with dry weather in the south of the country, May frosts in central regions, the Volga region and in some southern regions could have a negative impact on the crop, analysts said.
The price of 12.5% protein Russian wheat scheduled for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in June was $216 a metric ton, up from $212 a ton the previous week.
The Sovecon agriculture consultancy pegged the same class of wheat at $215-219 a ton, up from $213 to $216 a ton FOB.
“The weather in Russia has been a key topic for the global market. Rain in the South on April 30 - May 1 was limited. Also, the precipitation outlook has substantially worsened during the week. The models earlier were predicting meaningful rain in the South this weekend which is not the case anymore,”
Sovecon wrote in a weekly note, suggesting another revision to the crop forecast. “The weather models predict more noticeable rain in the South in the second half of May, but by that time plants are likely to be substantially impacted.”
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