MUMBAI: The Indian rupee weakened on Thursday, alongside Asian emerging market currencies, as strong US retail sales data seemed to favour the Federal Reserve’s view of not pausing its rate increases any time soon.
The rupee fell 0.29% to 81.53 per dollar to trade near the level it was last Thursday, softer-than-expected US inflation data sparked a slide in the greenback.
The rupee has had a turbulent few days due to cash dollar demand by corporates and importer hedging. “It seems like USD/INR could form its broad range between 80.50-82,” said Amit Pabari, managing director at consultancy firm CR Forex.
“Near support of 81.10 levels, dollar demand picks up as importers participate. But the 81.50-82.00 zone stands as a strong resistance due to persistent inflows and dollar selling by exporters.” Asian stocks and currencies were lower across the board, with Chinese, and South Korean, securities down sharply.
The dollar index edged up 0.2% after data on Wednesday showed US retail sales rose more than expected in October, signalling the economy remained strong and that the Fed would have to keep hiking rates.
The slightly soft inflation report last week had sparked bets of a Fed pivot soon, but the retail sales reading and multiple Fed speakers over the week have poured cold water on those expectations.
Indian rupee likely to slip on weak Asia FX; dollar index recovers
Just overnight, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, until recently one of the most dovish officials, said a pause was off the table.
While it is highly likely that the Fed will opt for a smaller-sized 50 basis point (bps) rate hike in December, a few economists now expect a higher peak rate.
Goldman Sachs added another 25 bps rate hike in May to their terminal Fed fund rate forecast.
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