US natgas futures little changed ahead of weekly storage report

US natural gas futures held steady on Thursday as the market waited for direction from a federal report expected to show last week's storage draw was smaller than usual for this time of year.

That lack of price movement came despite forecasts for slightly cooler weather over the next two weeks than previously expected.

Analysts forecast US utilities pulled 73 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended March 5. That compares with a decrease of 72 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2016-2020) average withdrawal of 89 bcf.

If correct, last week's decrease would cut stockpiles to 1.772 trillion cubic feet (tcf), which would be 8.4% below the five-year average of 1.934 tcf for this time of year.

Front-month gas futures remained unchanged at $2.689 per million British thermal units at 7:40 a.m. EST (1240 GMT).

Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 US states averaged 90.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up sharply from the 28-month low of 86.5 bcfd in February when extreme weather froze gas wells and pipes in Texas, but lower than the all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019.

Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would slide from 103.8 bcfd this week to 103.0 bcfd next week as the weather turns seasonally milder. That is similar to Refinitiv's forecasts on Wednesday.

The amount of gas flowing to US LNG export plants, meanwhile, averaged 10.2 bcfd so far in March. That compares with a four-month low of 8.5 bcfd in February as extreme cold cut power and gas supplies to the facilities, and a monthly record high of 10.7 bcfd in December.