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Following is a selection of comments from analysts on important technical developments in the foreign exchange market.
EURO/DOLLAR: "Managed to establish a short-term base at the $1.900 area, which coincides with the convergence of its 200-day SMA and lower Bollinger.
While this level of support is not strong enough to sustain any real selling pressure, bulls can now make a run at the 10-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1.2045 and then the 20-day SMA at $1.2135.
The resistance level at $1.2045 is weak, but it is a good gauge of the determination of buyers. If they show any signs of hesitation, there will be plenty of bears looking to sell into this rally and retest the year-to-date low at $1.1868. Given the overall weakness, a break of that level leaves bulls without support until $1.1755, the November 25 low."
DOLLAR/YEN: "It was consolidation day in dollar/yen as the pair digested its gains from the run-up we saw in the last few sessions. Further pullback is needed to relieve the overbought condition from the upper Bollinger.
A breach of the support level at 107.95 yen (the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) and 50 percent Fibonnaci) would trigger substantial profit-taking on positions bought earlier in the week.
"Bargain-hunters however would be interested in picking up the pair at 107.25 yen, a convergence of the 100-day SMA and 50-day EMA. On the upside, if bulls can quickly regroup and make another strong push at the 61.8 percent Fibonnaci at 109 yen, the next resistance level is the 200-day SMA at 110.60."
STERLING/DOLLAR: "Trying to regain some of the ground lost during the week, although the early vital signs are unconvincing. A close above $1.8000 would at least scare some shorts to take profit and attract bulls looking for a move to the 100-day SMA at $1.8165".

Copyright Reuters, 2004

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