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Markets

Australia & NZ dollars firm, RBA rates happily on hold

Published Updated

imageSYDNEY/WELLINGTON: The Australian and New Zealand dollars were firm on Tuesday as concerns over the Ukraine/Crimea crisis waned for the moment, while Australia's central bank reiterated that rates were likely to be kept on hold for some time.

The Aussie edged up to $0.9077, having recovered from a low just under 90 cents on Monday.

It made the biggest inroads against a broadly-weaker yen to be at 92.40 yen.

It gained more than 1 percent in one session as short positions were squeezed.

The Aussie was pulling closer to the five-month peak of 94.47 set in early March.

Risk appetite improved as the threat of immediate military conflict in Ukraine receded for now, with investors awaiting the conclusion of the US Federal Reserve's two-day meeting on Wednesday.

"I see a stronger Aussie until the Fed does something," said Roger Bridges, head of fixed income at Tyndall Investment Management, seeing the US central bank sticking with its current tapering programme.

He forecast the Aussie would trade between 85 cents and 90 cents in the near term with an upside risk due to a generally weaker US dollar.

At home, minutes of the March policy meeting showed the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) strengthened its view of a stable interest rate outlook.

It also said while the fall in the local dollar to date would help the economy achieve balanced growth, the currency remained high by historical standards.

The central bank has long favoured a lower Aussie dollar to boost exports and help the economy transition from resource-led activity to other sectors. Recent upbeat data in Australia has led markets to price out almost any chance of further easing with interbank futures implying a less than one-in-10 chance of a cut from the current record-low 2.5 percent.

Swap markets give a small chance of a hike on a 12-month horizon.

Strong chart resistance for the Aussie was found between $0.9135 and $0.9150.

The New Zealand dollar was firm at $0.8565 on the improvement in risk sentiment, and the outlook was for more gains following the central bank's move to start raising rates.

"Price action post last week's move suggests the market is still not yet overly long the New Zealand dollar, though there are a couple of risks to the near-term outlook which suggest some caution," Westpac senior strategist Imre Speizer wrote in a market commentary.

The particular risks were the Crimea tensions and concerns about China's economy, while potentially stronger data out of the United States reflecting improved weather might support the US dollar.

The kiwi was trading a thin range, with near-term support around $0.8542. Initial resistance was at Monday's high of $0.8583 ahead of a more substantial barrier at the year-to-date high of $0.8607.

The better risk sentiment saw it notch modest gains against the safe-haven yen to 87.36 yen as it eyed the more than six-year high of 88.32 touched last week.

The currency is seen following broader market forces ahead of the Fed announcement later this week, with an eye to New Zealand's fourth quarter gross domestic product data on Thursday.

A Reuters poll forecasts 0.9 percent growth compared to the previous quarter.

New Zealand government bonds were a touch softer, pushing yields a couple of ticks higher along the curve.

The improvement in risk sentiment sent Australian government bond futures lower with the three-year bond contract down 4.5 ticks at 96.990.

The 10-year contract lost 5 ticks to 95.895.

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