FRANKFURT: The shock to Japan from this month's earthquake, tsunami and struggle to contain radiation leaks should have no lasting impact on global financial markets, equity manager RCM said on Friday.
"Apart from the human tragedy, the impact of this geopolitical event is likely to be limited," Andreas Utermann, chief investment officer at the Allianz Global Investors unit, told a journalist briefing.
Utermann said there was a "tail risk of certainly less than 10 percent" that radioactive contamination could have a serious impact on Tokyo, which would dent the global economy.
"The highest probability is that the main damage will have been caused by the tsunami and the earthquake," said Utermann, whose employer, RCM, had over $150 billion in assets under management at the end of last year.
Rebuilding the damaged properties, infrastructure and sea defences in the affected region over the next three to five years would cost around 10 percent of GDP and push the country toward a reflationary policy, he said.
Repatriation of overseas assets by Japan would not lead to yen strengthening, given the G7's determination to intervene to keep the yen weak.
"It's a turning point for the yen," Utermann said, predicting 80 yen would be a floor for the dollar.
RCM is bullish on Japan, whose companies are extremely competitive and where shares were already at low historical valuations before this month's crisis prompted further drops.
The impact of the crisis on global supply chains for products such as chips, wafers and automobiles are a key focus for economists but Utermann said residual over-capacities from the global financial crisis means the problem can be quickly ironed out.
However, Japan's problems would prompt the European Central Bank to hold off tightening credit until May or June, rather than in April as many in the market have predicted, he said.
Utermann repeated that he expected no break up of the euro area nor did he see Spain needing to seek a bail out.
Turning to European share markets, Utermann said Ireland, Greece, Hungary, Russia, Italy, the UK, Spain, Turkey, Portugal, the Netherlands and France all looked undervalued.
Share markets in Poland, the Czech Republic, Germany, Sweden and Switzerland were more expensive than the average.
"US equities are the most expensive," Utermann said.
"We will focus the construction of our asset allocation on Europe and Japan," he added.
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