LONDON: There is little chance the euro will recoup its recent steep losses against the dollar over the next 12 months, according to a Reuters poll that suggested the currency will cling on to its present levels as long as Greece stays in the euro zone.
The euro has risen slightly over the last few days after plummeting 7 percent against the dollar in May. The latest market data shows traders' bets on a weaker euro reached their highest in two years.
Financial market participants are anxious about the risks cascading from a Spanish banking crisis and fret that a Greek election on June 17 could lead Athens to leave the single currency and precipitate yet more economic turmoil.
While that augurs in favour of strength towards the dollar, yen and Swiss franc, the poll of foreign exchange strategists suggested the euro won't fall much further.
But that is based on the assumption that Greece does not suddenly exit the euro zone.
"Each of these currencies (dollar, yen, franc) is being undermined by accommodative central bank policies and this could be a factor that appears to slow the downside potential for the euro in the coming weeks," said Jane Foley, senior foreign exchange strategist at Rabobank International, in a research note.
Prospects for another round of bond purchases by the Federal Reserve rose sharply on Wednesday after two influential Fed officials said they were prepared to take more action to boost the erratic US economic recovery.
That is likely to keep pressure on the dollar.
But Foley added: "In view of the magnitude of the crisis that is raging in the euro zone at present, we would favour selling rallies in EUR/USD in the coming weeks."
The median forecasts from the poll, conducted over the last week, showed the euro slipping slightly from its Thursday level around $1.256 to $1.24 in one month and in three months' time, and back around $1.25 in both the six and 12-month timeframes.
These forecasts were a few cents weaker than those from the May poll, and the 12-month outlook was cut for the fourth time in a row to its weakest in nearly two years.
Indeed, out of the 49 forecasters who took part in both the May and June Reuters foreign exchange polls, only seven strengthened their 12-month forecast for the euro this time around.
As European policymakers struggle to contain mounting troubles there, the fallout threatens to drag the world economy into another recession.
All of the euro zone's major economies are now in various states of decline, business surveys showed on Tuesday, underlining why finance chiefs from the Group of Seven leading industrialised powers held emergency talks on the euro zone's debt crisis.
The European Central Bank dashed investors' hopes of an easing of monetary policy or another flood of cheap liquidity for banks despite saying that the euro zone money market has again become "dysfunctional".
The ECB left interest rates on hold at 1 percent at its monthly meeting.
While the Greek elections represent the biggest uncertainty right now, most forecasters have worked on the assumption Greece will not face a messy expulsion from the euro zone, which would likely wreak havoc across the currency area.
Some noted there could be room for the euro to strengthen against the dollar if the crisis stabilises.
"The June 17th elections are make-or-break for the euro. But with the negative market sentiment built up and huge negative euro positioning, the markets may be caught off guard just as in January 2012," said Aurelija Augulyte, analyst at Nordea.
Against the British pound, the euro was seen holding steady, trading at 80 pence over the 12-month forecast horizon, little changed from the 81p it was trading at earlier on Thursday.
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