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Markets

Rouble rebound continues, Russian stocks mixed

Published Updated

 MOSCOW: The rouble continued to rebound on Wednesday, helped by firmer oil prices. Russian stocks were mixed, with investors awaiting possible stimulus measures by Western central banks.

The rouble has recovered strongly this week after hitting a three-year low of 34.12 versus the dollar on Monday, following a massive sell-off last week prompted by sliding oil prices.

At 0830 GMT the rouble had firmed 1.6 percent against the dollar to 32.47, and by 1.2 percent against the euro to 40.64.

The rouble was up 1.4 percent to 36.14 against the euro-dollar basket monitored by the central bank.

"It looks as if the markets - given some improvement in global sentiment and some rebound in oil prices - decided to close the previous short rouble positions to take profits," said Dmitry Polevoy, chief economist at ING in Moscow.

"We may also have some effects from stronger sales by exporters. Their behaviour is sometimes very quick - they try to wait for the most lucrative rouble rate. Obviously the risk now is the dollar will go even lower against the rouble."

Exporters must sell foreign currency each month to pay monthly tax payments, due to start on June 15.

Traders said that the rouble had also been helped by a rally in resource currencies, following stronger-than-expected Australian first quarter GDP.

The stronger rouble lifted the dollar-denominated RTS index of Russian stocks, which rose by 1.4 percent to 1264.1 points.

However, the rouble-denominated MICEX was flat at 1296.6 points, with investors cautiously awaiting possible stimulus measures by Western central banks.

The ECB meets today to consider interest rates, while Fed chairman Ben Bernanke will testify before Congress on Thursday.

In a research note, Aton brokerage analyst Elena Kozhukova said traders had failed on Tuesday to breach the MICEX's present upper resistance level of 1325 points, after which the next resistance level would be 1400 points.

Having breached 1230 points, the RTS next faces resistance at 1270. "From a technical point of view, both indicators are ready to continue movement upwards, however, they are awaiting fundamental reasons for this," she wrote.

Shares in Russian airline Aeroflot outperformed the market, rising by 1.9 percent, after the Vedomosti newspaper reported that the company is considering a share offering of at least 13.4 percent of its shares in London by the end of this year.

COPYRIGHT REUTERS, 2012

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