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Markets

Russian rouble down as global risk aversion grows

Published January 22, 2019 Updated January 22, 2019 09:41am

MOSCOW: The Russian rouble eased on Tuesday as global risk aversion spread after as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its global growth forecasts, increasing demand for safer assets.

The IMF predicted the global economy would grow 3.5 percent in 2019 and 3.6 percent in 2020, down 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively from last October's forecasts.

At 0737 GMT, the rouble was 0.25 percent weaker against the dollar at 66.56 and had lost 0.12 percent to trade at 75.54 versus the euro.

Lower oil prices pressed on the rouble as they also fell on concerns about a global economic slowdown. Brent crude oil , a global benchmark for Russia's main export, was down 0.67 percent at $62.32 a barrel.

Analysts at Rosbank said in a note they saw the Russian economic growth weakening to be at 1.2 percent in 2019 caused by a number of facts, including U.S. sanctions.

Analysts said they saw the rouble at 65.5-66.2 versus the U.S. dollar this year, under pressure from the lower oil prices they forecast and the resumption of foreign-exchange purchases by the central bank.

The central bank resumed FX purchases for state reserves from Jan. 15, restoring daily downside pressure on the rouble that eased in late August when the central bank halted FX buying amid increased market volatility.

"The central bank took an option to reflect the full size of the MinFin's budget rule, which could significantly increase the rouble's sensitivity to extraordinary capital flows," analysts said.

The central bank said on Tuesday it has bought an equivalent of 7.04 billion roubles of forex on Jan 18.

Russian stock indexes were down.

The dollar-denominated RTS index was down 0.65 percent to 1,163.09 points. The rouble-based MOEX Russian index  was 0.46 percent lower at 2,456.52 points.

Copyright Reuters, 2019
 

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