Targets of all major crops missed

The country has missed all major crops targets - wheat, cotton, maize, gram and lentils set for 2017-18, suggesting that agricultural sector growth remained around 3.1 percent against the government's inflated figure of 3.8 percent, official sources revealed to Business Recorder. Talking to Business Recorder former Finance Minister Dr Hafeez Pasha contradicted the government' claim of achieving 3.8 percent growth, while saying agricultural sector growth will be around 3.1 percent in the current fiscal year. He said that fertilizer is the key input to agriculture production, but its consumption declined by 4 percent during the first nine months. Secondly the country is facing water shortage and the situation is becoming worse with every passing day.
The government has claimed it achieved a 13 year high growth of 3.8 percent in agricultural sector during 2017-18 and the same rate has been projected for 2018-19. However, government officials as well as independent economists have challenged this data arguing that growth figure is inflated and not based on reality.
Sources revealed to Business Recorder that crops including wheat, cotton, maize, gram and lentil targets were missed by 4 percent, 7 percent, 4.74 percent, 45.7 percent and 34.7 percent respectively which negatively affected growth rate for the outgoing financial year 2017-18.
The country missed cotton production target of 14.04 million bales as well as revised target of 12.6 million bales set for 2017-18 by around 7 percent as production was recorded at 11.5 million bales, sources added. However, government has claimed that cotton production showed remarkable growth of 12.3 percent to 11.9 million bales over last year which was 10.67 million bales.
The country had missed cotton production target by around 30 percent in 2015-16 and 25 percent in 2016-17 and Finance Minister Ishaq Dar had stated that it contributed 0.5 percent to GDP growth. The government has set 14.37 million bales of cotton production target from an area of 7.3 million acres for 2018-19.
Sources said wheat production for 2017-18 was estimated at 25.41 million tons from an area of 21 million acres against the target of 26.46 million tons from 22.3 million acres. Wheat crop was sown on an area of 21.2 million acres witnessing a decrease of 0.12 million acres (1.29 percent) as compared to 22.16 million acres during the corresponding year. Overall 98 percent sowing of the target area of wheat was reported by the provincial governments. The shortfall was attributed to acute water shortage, delayed and prolonged sugarcane crushing season and fog and smog in the country.
After wheat and rice, maize is the third most important cereal crop in Pakistan, contributing 2.2 percent to value added in agriculture and 0.4 percent to GDP. Maize was targeted to be sown on 2.4 million acres with production target of 5.59 million tons. However, maize production target was missed by 4.74 percent with total output of 5.32 million tons. The production also declined by 7 percent compared to 6.1 million tons last year.
Gram is the largest Rabi pulse crop, accounting for 76 percent of the total production of pulses in the country and it occupies about 5 percent of the country's cropped area. Gram production for 2017-18 has been estimated at 375.6 thousand tons from an area of 2.3 million acres against the target of 617.5 thousands tons from 2.45 million acres. This production level reflects a decrease of 39.17 percent from the target. The reasons are dry weather and attack of termite and wilt production.
Lentil production for 2017-18 has been estimated at 7.2 thousand tons from 13.9 thousands hectares against the target of 10.1 thousand tons from 20.9 thousands hectares. This production level reflects a decrease of 28.64 percent over target. The decrease in area over last year is due to the shifting of the area toward wheat crop.
Dr Pasha questioned how livestock sector has shown growth when there is a decline in per capita consumption of major livestock products including milk, meat and beef, which accounts for 60 percent of the sector. He acknowledged that some growth was witnessed in poultry sector, but it accounts for only around 10 percent of the livestock sector. Dr Pasha said that government is claiming that it achieved increase in sugarcane output-the major crop, but according to industry its production declined by 3 percent. In such circumstances, the agricultural sector could not be more than 3.1 percent, he added.