The global coffee market will see a smaller supply shortfall in 2017/18 than previously expected, partly due to stronger production in Vietnam and Honduras, Marex Spectron said on Wednesday. The broker trimmed its deficit forecast for arabica and robusta coffee to 2.2 million 60-kg bags in 2017/18, revised down from a previously estimated shortfall of 4.4 million bags.
Global coffee production for 2017/18 was seen at 155.3 million bags, revised up from 152.4 million bags amid stronger output in Honduras and Vietnam.
"Rains have been plentiful in Vietnam and prices high, and this should ensure a Vietnamese crop at or close to record," Marex said in its October market update.
The broker pegged production for Vietnam, the world's top producer of robusta, at 29 million bags in 2017/18, up 1 million bags from its prior estimate.
Consumption for 2017/18 was forecast at 157.6 million bags, revised up from 156.8 million bags.
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