US natural gas futures fell on Tuesday on forecasts for less heating demand in the coming weeks than previously expected. Front-month gas futures fell 6.5 cents, or 2.1 percent, to settle at $3.102 per million British thermal units, their lowest close since November 3. Thomson Reuters forecast US gas consumption would rise to an average of 95.7 billion cubic feet day next week from 92.0 bcfd this week. That is slightly lower than Monday's projection of 95.9 bcfd for next week and 92.1 bcfd for this week.
Production in the lower 48 US states averaged an all-time high of 75.2 bcfd over the past 30 days, according to Reuters data. Output peaked at a daily high of 76.4 bcfd last week. While some analysts said utilities started pulling gas out of storage last week due to colder than normal weather and high exports, the consensus estimate is for a small build of 3 billion cubic feet during the week ending on November 10. That compares with a year-earlier build of 34 bcf and a five-year average increase of 12 bcf for that period.
The projected increase for the week, if correct, would leave stocks at around 3.793 trillion cubic feet, or about 2.1 percent below the five-year average for this time of year. Even though the amount of gas in storage is slightly less than usual for this time of year, some traders said that was more than enough to meet demand this winter, especially if the latest forecasts for the season are correct. The National Weather Service expects temperatures in December, January and February to be warmer than normal across much of the country again this year.
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