Vietnamese coffee sales are expected to rise this month along with a quickening harvest, while concerns over rain in the production region have made exporters largely inactive, traders said on Tuesday. Rain in the Central Highlands coffee belt, which contributes to some 80 percent of Vietnam's total output, slowed the early harvest last month and delayed cherry ripening.
The region is expected to see intermittent rainfall, the national weather centre said on Tuesday. The rainy season often ends within the first half of November, giving way for the harvest to peak. "There's been some hesitation as the supply of new coffee beans has yet to pick up," a trader in Ho Chi Minh City said. "But sales have been more active thanks to high prices recently," he added, comparing with the pace in early October.
Robusta prices eased to 44.6-44.9 million dong ($1,998-$2,012) a tonne on Tuesday in Daklak, Vietnam's top growing province, after touching 45-45.2 million dong late last week. The 45.2 million dong price tag was the highest since the week ending March 23, 2013. ICE January robusta coffee settled down 0.1 percent at $2,184 per tonne on Monday. Last Friday, the contract hit $2,191, the highest since October 2014.
"The current prices are an opportunity for those who have stocks ready to sell," said independent analyst Nguyen Quang Binh. Sales could be more active if domestic prices stay in the range of 45-47 million dongs per tonne, he said. Traders forecast November's coffee exports at between 100,000 tonnes and 110,000 tonnes (1.67 million to 1.83 million 60-kg bags), down from the 130,000 tonnes estimated for October export. Binh said the coffee market faces several risks, including the long position by many funds, the uncertainty over Vietnam's 2016/2017 crop output and the possibility of the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates.
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