Russia's wheat prices up on export risks

Russian export prices for wheat rose last week after risks of tighter export rules triggered a jump in global prices, analysts said on Monday. Russia's Black Sea prices for wheat with 12.5 percent protein content were up $9 last week to $264 per tonne on a free-on-board (FOB) basis compared with a week earlier, SovEcon agriculture consultancy said in a note.
According to IKAR, another Moscow-based consultancy, FOB prices for wheat with the same protein content rose $6 to $259 per tonne. Russia's grain exports have been running at a record high thanks to a heavy crop and the weakening rouble, which caused concerns among officials that remaining supplies may be insufficient to meet domestic demand needs and add to the government's faltering programme to replenish stocks.
Russia's phytosanitary regulator (VPSS) has warned that it could introduce new regulations on grain exports, fuelling speculation that it was the first step in export restrictions. So far this 2014/15 marketing year, which started on July 1, the country exported 18.5 million tonnes of grains, including 14.6 million tonnes of wheat. In November it supplied 3.0 million tonnes.
It is likely to export about 2.7-2.9 million tonnes of grains in December, slightly below the record high of 3 million tonnes set in December 2011, due to unfavourable weather in the Azov Sea, IKAR said. Farmers harvested 110.4 million tonnes of grains, including 62.3 million tonnes of wheat, before drying and cleaning, from 99.8 percent of the planned area as of December 5. The crop is set to reach 104 million tonnes of grains by clean weight.
The condition of winter grains, put at risk during the autumn period, has eased slightly thanks to warm weather in the European part of the country, but remains worse than usual, according to SovEcon. In the domestic sunflower seed market, SovEcon said prices rose 650 roubles to 18,800 roubles ($352) per tonne, while IKAR quoted them up 560 roubles at 18,200. FOB Black Sea prices for crude sunflower oil were down $20 at $81 per tonne, SovEcon added. IKAR's FOB index was at $780 per tonne, down from $805. IKAR's white sugar price index for Russia's south was at $683 per tonne, up from $661 per tonne a week ago.