BoK warns country’s chip exports likely to fall

SEOUL: South Korea’s semiconductor exports could fall by USD50 billion to USD100 billion compared with earlier forecasts if capital spending on artificial intelligence by major US technology firms slows next year, according to central bank data.

In a written response submitted to lawmaker Ahn Do-geol, the Bank of Korea (BOK) modelled a “pessimistic scenario” to assess the economic fallout if US tech giants curb their aggressive infrastructure outlays.

Under the scenario, a sudden export shortfall would shave approximately 0.4 percentage point off South Korea’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate next year, by driving the country’s current account surplus well below the central bank’s initial projection of USD430 billion for 2027.

The scenario assumed a 10 percent decline in Korean semiconductor unit prices. The assessment underscores growing anxiety over South Korea’s heavy reliance on chips, which account for roughly half of its exports.

The report said combined capital expenditure by five major US technology firms, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle, has been growing rapidly, from USD40 billion last year to an estimated USD80 billion this year, and is projected to reach USD110 billion next year.

However, the BOK cautioned that considerable uncertainty remains over the trajectory of AI demand and the broader memory chip business cycle.