KARACHI: Pakistan is expected to see warmer-than-normal temperatures across most regions, with wetter conditions in the north and drier weather in the south, while hailstorms, strong winds, smog, dengue and localized avalanches pose risks in the coming months.
Northwest Pakistan is likely to receive the highest above-normal rainfall. While the additional rain could support timely Rabi sowing, isolated showers, hailstorms and windstorms in October may disrupt the harvesting of Kharif crops. Farmers have been advised to prepare for possible weather-related damage, the Met Office outlook for October, November and December says.
Temperatures may remain above normal across almost the entire country, with the highest likelihood of warmer conditions in Gilgit-Baltistan and northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
The warmer weather could delay snow accumulation at lower elevations, the outlook adds.
In contrast, southern Punjab, Sindh and southern Balochistan are likely to receive near-normal to slightly below-normal rainfall. These drier conditions could increase irrigation needs during the early stages of the Rabi season, it says.
The seasonal outlook also highlights two major public health concerns. Drier conditions across the central and southern plains could increase the risk of fog and smog, affecting public health and reducing visibility, it warns.
Dengue transmission may also remain active during October and November, particularly in warm and humid cities, before declining in December. Authorities have been advised to strengthen mosquito-control measures and remove standing water to limit the spread of the disease.
From November onward, it says, snowfall and rain at higher elevations could create unstable snowpack and trigger localized avalanches in steep areas of Gilgit-Baltistan, northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Kashmir. Disaster management authorities in these regions should strengthen preparedness to deal with potential emergencies.
The seasonal outlook is influenced by two major climate drivers: a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, which is expected to turn neutral by the end of the season, and a positive El Niño–Southern Oscillation, which is likely to persist, the Met says.
The forecast cautions that the outlook is probabilistic and will be updated monthly. It indicates broad weather trends rather than exact conditions and should be used to support planning and preparations for potential risks.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2026
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