Indian bonds join global debt selloff, bruised by oil and US Treasury yields

MUMBAI: Indian government bonds extended losses into a fifth straight session on Wednesday, as U.S. Treasury yields climbed to near three-year highs and surging oil prices rekindled inflation fears.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, a global yardstick for borrowing costs, hovered at 4.81%, its highest level since November 2023. The 5% mark is a threshold traders say could further unnerve global markets.

Globally, bonds extended losses, driving borrowing costs to multi-decade highs, as conflict in the Middle East lifted energy prices. Brent crude futures climbed to a six-week high of $95 per barrel in Asian trade.

As the world’s third-largest oil importer and consumer, India is highly vulnerable to oil price swings.

The yield on the Indian benchmark 6.94% 2036 bond climbed 2 basis points to close at 6.9754% on Wednesday. It briefly probed the 7% mark at open before dip-buying trimmed the sell-off. Traders, however, remained reluctant to buy and hold, with the 10-year yield having climbed about 13 basis points over five sessions.

The crude rally, coupled with the upswing in global yields, has also hardened bets on domestic monetary policy tightening.

Wednesday’s 364-day Treasury-bill auction underscored that shift, as India sold 364-day bills at 5.91%, versus 5.80% last week.

Overnight indexed swap rates now imply 75 basis points of RBI rate hikes over the next 12 months.

“Looking ahead, the U.S. FOMC meeting, the Government’s second-half borrowing programme, developments around crude oil prices and food inflation will be the key factors to watch,” said Murthy Nagarajan, fixed income head at Tata Asset Management.

Rates

India’s OIS rates split direction as traders weighed the scope of a shallow rate-hike cycle.

The one-year rate shed 1.5 bps to 6%, while two-year rates gained 1 bp to 6.22%. The five-year rate rose 2.5 basis points to 6.53%.