Cocoa futures rise sharply with production set to fall

LONDON: Cocoa futures rose sharply on Friday, boosted partly by a projected decline in production in West Africa in the upcoming 2026/27 season while arabica coffee and sugar were also higher.

Cocoa

ICE London cocoa rose 6.9% to £4,074 a metric ton by 1345 GMT with the market on track for a monthly gain of 6.6%.

The market has also been supported by signs that demand is beginning to revive.

Ghana’s cocoa production is expected to fall by at least 16% in the 2026 to 2027 season, market regulator COCOBOD said, citing weather effects, the crop’s natural fruit-bearing cycle and disease, adding detail to warnings farmers have raised.

New York cocoa gained 7.4% to $5,490 a ton.

Arabica coffee prices climb, boosted by tight supplies

Coffee

ICE arabica coffee was up 1.2% at $3.2680 per lb with the market on track for a monthly gain of 5%.

Dealers said the market had been buoyed by tight supplies driven partly by harvest delays in Brazil.

They noted exchange stocks have fallen to their lowest since February 1, 2024.

ICE certified stocks stood at 266,204 bags on July 30, down from 315,883 bags a week earlier and sharply below the 775,476 bags by the same stage last year.

Robusta coffee lost 0.3% to $3,749 a ton.

Sugar

Raw sugar was up 1.6% at 14.66 cents per lb with the market on track for a small monthly gain of 2.2%.

Raw sugar futures on ICE are expected to end the year about 4% above current levels as the global market shifts into deficit, a Reuters poll of 11 traders and analysts showed.

White sugar rose 0.7% to $460 a ton.

India, the world’s second-largest sugar producer, is likely to receive below-average monsoon rainfall in August after recording average rainfall in July, the weather department said on Friday, raising concerns about crop yields.