KARACHI: The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has projected an improvement in key macroeconomic indicators for the current fiscal year (FY27), forecasting GDP growth between 3.5 percent and 4.5 percent, higher exports and remittance inflows, stronger foreign exchange reserves, surplus primary balance and a manageable current account deficit.
SBP Governor Jameel Ahmad on Monday unveiled projections for key economic indicators, expressing confidence that Pakistan’s economy will strengthen further in FY27, with real GDP growth expected to range between 3.5 and 4.5 percent compared to 3.7 percent achieved in FY26.
However, he said that the risks emanating from volatile global commodity prices amidst re-escalation of tension in the Middle East and uncertain weather conditions, including from the evolving El Niño effects, may weigh on the growth prospects.
READ MORE: Pakistan’s GDP growth for FY26 to remain above govt estimate, says SBP chief
He said that in the initial months of FY26, Pakistan’s economy was growing about 4 percent but economic activity recorded some slowdown in Q4-FY26 in the wake of the Middle East conflict, surge in global energy prices, and austerity measures taken by the government.
However, high frequency indicators, including satellite imagery, automobile sales, cement dispatches, fertiliser offtake and business sentiments, suggest some recovery in economic activity in June. In addition, agriculture outlook has somewhat improved from the previous assessment. Therefore, real GDP growth is likely to be higher than previous year, he said.
He said that SBP has successfully achieved the current account target in FY26 with nominal deficit of USD 139 million. For this year, the current account deficit is expected to widen in line with the pickup in economic activity, though it is assessed to remain in the range of 0 percent to 1 percent of GDP in FY27.
Workers’ remittances are also expected to increase during FY27 and will continue to finance a significant portion of the projected trade deficit, the Governor SBP said.
“While some market participants have projected a decline in remittance inflows this fiscal year, the SBP estimates that Pakistan will receive around USD 44 billion in workers’ remittances in FY27, up from USD 41.6 billion recorded in FY26,” he added.
With the realisation of planned official inflows and some likely improvement in private flows, SBP’s foreign exchange reserves will continue to increase and achieve USD 20.20 billion by end-December 2026.
SBP also expects that goods exports to increase by USD 1.2 billion to reach USD 32 billion during the fiscal year, while imports are projected to rise by USD 5 billion to USD 69 billion on rising domestic demand.
The primary balance is estimated to have remained in surplus for the third consecutive year, while overall fiscal deficit was estimated to have turned out significantly lower than the previous year.
Going forward, fiscal consolidation is expected to continue in FY27, with the primary surplus targeted at 2 percent of GDP, whereas the overall fiscal deficit is targeted at 3.6 percent of the GDP, Jameel Ahmad informed.
However, he said that achieving these targets will require sustained progress in revenue mobilisation and expenditure discipline amidst an uncertain domestic and global environment. In this regard, the MPC re-emphasised the need of fiscal reforms, particularly tax base-broadening efforts and curtailing PSE losses, to support high and sustainable economic growth, he mentioned.
SBP also estimated that its profit transfer to the federal government for FY26 is likely to amount to Rs1.4 trillion, although the exact figure will be finalised after the completion of the audit process.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2026
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