Pakistan's GDP growth for FY26 to remain above govt estimate, says SBP chief

State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Governor Jameel Ahmad on Friday projected that the country’s economic growth will be higher than the government’s provisional growth number at 3.7% for FY26.

Speaking at a press conference, Ahmad said that the country’s GDP growth is expected to be around 3.75-4.75% in FY26.

“Earlier, we expected GDP growth of over 4%, but due to the ongoing Middle East crisis, the growth is expected to be lower than that,” he said.

During FY26, Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves, held by the central bank, surged to $18.4 billion, up from $13 billion registered in FY25.

“The FX has increased despite a debt repayment of $8 billion in June alone,” he said.

Ahmad said the preliminary numbers suggested that the inflows of workers’ remittances would end up above $41.5 billion in FY26, higher than last year, despite the recent geopolitical crisis in the region.

Cumulatively, workers’ remittances increased by 9.2% to $38.1 billion during Jul-May FY26, compared to $34.9 billion received during the same period last year.

“We have projected workers’ remittances to clock in at $44 billion in FY27,” the central bank chief said.

Meanwhile, the inflation reading for FY26 is estimated at 7.05% higher than the target of 5-7%, he said.

On the other hand, export earnings are projected to increase in FY27, reversing the decline observed in the last fiscal year.

Pakistan’s trade deficit widened to $39.47 billion in FY26, up by 21.57% compared to the preceding fiscal year, Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) reported on Thursday.

Ahmad stated that the central bank has ended subsidy schemes for inflows of workers’ remittances, i.e., the Sohni Dharti Remittance Program (SDRP) and Telegraphic Transfer Charges Incentive Scheme (TTCIS).

“However, commercial banks and exchange companies would continue to incentivise the inflows, leaving no negative impact going forward,” said Ahmad.