NAC releases Q3 FY 2025-26 GDP estimates, showing 4pc YoY growth

ISLAMABAD: The National Accounts Committee (NAC) has released GDP estimates for the third quarter of fiscal year 2025-26, showing year-on-year growth of 4.0 percent.

The growth rate for the first nine months of the fiscal year also averaged 4.0 percent, remaining within the State Bank of Pakistan’s projected range of 3.75 percent to 4.75 percent.

According to the NCA’s latest figures, the national accounts aggregates for FY 2025-26, the overall size of the economy stands at USD 452.1 billion as compared to USD 408.2 billion. Further, based on the population projection of the 2023 Census, per capita income has reached USD1901.

READ MORE: Pakistan’s economy grows 3.89 pct in Q2 FY26, industry leads expansion

The 117th meeting of the NAC was held here on Wednesday under the chairmanship of Secretary, Ministry of Planning and Development which approved the quarterly GDP growth rates for Q1 (Revised), Q2 (Revised), and Q3 (Provisional) during FY 2025-26 and annual growth rates for 2023-24 (Final), 2024-25 (Revised) and 2025-26 (Provisional).

The committee approved the revised first and second quarter estimates of 2025-26. Overall GDP for Q1 and Q2 for FY 2025-26 has witnessed revised growth of 3.92 percent and 4.05 percent, as compared to 3.63 percent and 3.89 percent estimated in the 116th NAC meeting.

Despite a downward revision in livestock from 6.18 percent to 4.67 percent, agriculture has posted growth of 2.95 percent during Q1 as compared to 2.72 percent presented earlier due to upward revisions in other crops from -6.90 percent to 1.93 percent and fishing 0.91 percent to 2.45 percent.

The overall economy has posted a stable growth of 3.99 percent during Q3 of FY 2025-26. The growth in agriculture, industry, and services stands at 3.01 percent, 4.65 percent, and 4.18 percent, respectively.

During Q3, all constituents in agriculture have posted positive growth, i.e., important crops (1.10 percent), other crops (2.27 percent), livestock (3.70 percent), forestry (1.62 percent), and fishing (1.37 percent). Despite witnessing contraction in mining & quarrying (-2.55 percent) and electricity, gas and water supply (-13.53 percent), the industry has provisionally grown by 4.65 percent mainly due to large-scale manufacturing (9.53 percent).

The construction industry has posted a modest growth of 0.48 percent due to high growth, i.e., 14.27 percent during Q3 last year.

The overall growth in services is 4.18 percent during Q3 2025-26 with all the constituents contributing positively i.e. wholesale & retail trade (+4.13 percent), transportation & storage (+2.02 percent), information and communication (+9.78 percent), finance & insurance activities (+2.90), public administration and social security (+8.88 percent) education (+4.14 percent), health & social work (4.07 percent) and other private services (3.35 percent).

The updated growth in industry during Q1 is 7.80 percent as compared to 8.86 percent presented earlier due to downward revisions in electricity, gas, and water supply (from 24.51 percent to 21.38 percent) and construction (from 19.22 percent to 15.93 percent).

Due to improvement in information and communication (from -29.66 percent to -7.63 percent), growth in services has improved from 2.44 percent to 3.16 percent in Q1. Like Q1, agriculture growth in Q2 has also improved from 1.76 percent to 2.64 percent, mainly due to upward revision in other crops from -5.69 percent to 2.39 percent and fishing from 0.77 percent to 1.47 percent.

The industry witnessed a downward revision from 7.40 percent to 6.68 percent, mainly due to construction, which moved down to 6.42 percent as compared to 10.53 percent estimated earlier.

The revised growth in services Q2 has slightly improved from 3.69 percent to 3.83 percent due to improvement in wholesale & retail trade (from 4.46 percent to 4.66 percent) and information & communication (from -5.95 percent to -1.27 percent).

Copyright Business Recorder, 2026