MOSCOW: Russia has managed to keep crude oil loadings at its key western ports in April at March levels despite ongoing drone attacks, and May could see even an increase, according to trade and industry sources and Reuters estimates.
Drone attacks on ports and pipeline infrastructure constrained crude loadings from the Baltic and Black seas’ ports in late March and early April, but did not lead to an overall reduction in shipments. Exports and transit shipments of Urals, Siberian Light and KEBCO crude from the ports of Primorsk, Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk in April, including carryover volumes from the March initial schedule and top-ups, are estimated at around 2.2 million barrels per day.
That’s broadly in line with the revised March figure, the data from market sources showed. Crude exports from Ust-Luga were suspended on March 25 following a series of attacks and resumed only on April 7. Loadings from the port were the lowest at the start of the month, traders said.
Novorossiysk partially resumed crude and oil product trans-shipment on April 9 after a four-day suspension caused by a drone attack. Market participants expect Russia to be able to increase loadings in May amid seasonal weather improvements at ports, a domestic crude surplus and accumulated inventories, barring external disruptions. “There is a lot of oil in the system, everyone is interested in exports,” a Reuters source said, adding that new drone attacks on ports and pipelines could disrupt plans to raise exports.
Meanwhile, the resumption of crude supplies to Slovakia and Hungary via the southern leg of the Druzhba pipeline could ease pressure on Russia’s ports, with deliveries to the two countries potentially totalling about 200,000 barrels per day.
Still, a halt to Kazakhstan’s crude transit to Germany will result in additional transit volumes from Kazakh producers appearing at Russian ports. Russia has said it will divert oil supplies from Kazakhstan previously intended for Germany via the Druzhba pipeline to other routes.—Reuters
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