Aluminium rises as conflict over Iran spotlights supply concerns

Aluminium prices rose on Monday as the US-Israel attack on Iran heightened concerns over potential disruptions to shipping in the key Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global commodities.

The most-active aluminium contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 1.14% to 23,975 yuan ($3,490.57) a metric ton as of 0255 GMT, having gained 1.67% to 24,100 yuan earlier this session.

The benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange, meanwhile, climbed 1.80% to $3,196.50 a ton, after pulling up as much as 2.80% to $3,228 earlier.

Israel launched a new wave of strikes on Tehran on Sunday and Iran responded with more missile barrages, a day after the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei pitched the Middle East and the global economy into deepening uncertainty.

Tankers have suspended transit through the Strait of Hormuz, though it has not yet been blocked.

The Middle East region accounts for 6.85 million tons of refined aluminium production, which was about 9% of global output and 22% of production outside China, according to Natalie Scott-Gray, senior metals analyst at StoneX.

As no other shipping routes have a similar capacity as the Strait of Hormuz, a total closure would likely trap aluminium in the region and eventually lead to local smelters reducing or shutting down production, Scott-Gray said in a note.

This would tighten supply further, with China close to its capacity ceiling and exchange inventories running below seasonal norms.

Further gains in aluminium prices were capped by a stronger US dollar.

A stronger dollar weakens commodities priced by the greenback by making them less affordable for investors using other currencies.

Meanwhile, copper was rangebound.

The most-active Shanghai copper contract ticked 0.28% higher to 103,110 yuan a ton, and the London benchmark copper nudged 0.12% lower to $13,327 a ton.

Copper prices rose to a four-week high last week but remain under pressure from rising global inventories as stocks sitting in warehouses with SHFE rose to a 10-year high.

Among other SHFE base metals, zinc dipped 0.06%, nickel dropped 0.37%, lead rose 0.27% and tin added 2.32%.

Elsewhere on the LME, zinc added 0.30%, lead rose 0.46%, nickel declined 0.98% and tin lost 2.99%.