Australia, NZ dollars steady after see-saw week, bonds rally

SYDNEY: The Australian and New Zealand dollars went flat on Friday as a pullback in global equities soured risk sentiment, continuing the see-saw pattern of the week, though that did give a safe-haven lift to local bonds.

The Aussie was idling at $0.7102, having eased from a top of $0.7135 overnight.

That still left it a fraction firmer for the week, but the Aussie needs to clear the recent three-year peak of $0.71465 to keep the rally going.

The currency was also up 1.1% for the week on the Japanese yen and just off a 35-year high of 111.45.

The kiwi dollar had barely budged at $0.5981, and was flat on the week.

It remains corralled between support around $0.5930 and resistance at $0.6092. Bonds have fared better as a safety bid boosted Treasuries, helping Australian 10-year yields drop 8 basis points for the week to 4.658%, the lowest since mid-January.

That was still a tempting 65 basis points above US yields, providing a buffer for the Aussie.

A high reading on inflation this week has left markets implying an 80% chance the Reserve Bank of Australia will hike the 3.85% cash rate a quarter point in May.

The next major data point is gross domestic product for the December quarter on March 4, where analysts look for a rise of 0.6%, up from 0.4% the previous quarter.

Annual growth is seen holding at 2.1%, underpinned by a pickup in consumer spending and business investment.

“This is arguably too high for potential GDP, which we estimate is closer to 1.8%,” said Josh Williamson, head of Australian economics at Citi.

“We keep our central view for a +25bp May interest rate increase and point to the risk to a subsequent hike in Q3 if aggregate demand looks like maintaining an out-of-target band underlying inflation pulse.”

RBA Governor Michele Bullock also gives a speech and takes questions on Tuesday, while RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser is on a panel discussion in New York on Friday.