Indian shares poised to open near record-high levels after US trade deal

India’s equity benchmarks are set to open sharply higher near record highs on Tuesday, as the India–U.S. trade deal removes a major overhang for markets that have underperformed Asian and emerging market peers over the past year.

Gift Nifty futures were trading at 26,190 points, as of 8:26 a.m. IST, indicating the benchmark Nifty 50 index will open about 4.5% above Monday’s close of 25,088.4.

The Gift Nifty levels also indicate the Nifty ascending towards the record high of 26,373.20 hit in January.

US President Donald Trump on Monday announced a trade deal with India that slashes U.S. tariffs on Indian goods to 18% from 50% in exchange of India halting Russian oil purchases and lowering trade barriers.

The key tail risk of India’s geopolitical isolation about which investors were concerned has now been adequately addressed by the back-to-back deals with EU and U.S., Citi Research said in a note.

Analysts expect the overhang on Indian markets in terms of foreign outflows will be removed after the trade deal with the US.

Foreign portfolio investors (FPI) have offloaded shares worth $23 billion since the start of 2025, triggering a rare underperformance over Asian and emerging market peers.

The India-U.S. trade deal is a major boost for investor sentiment, acting as a positive trigger for foreign buying and supporting the rupee, said Jefferies analysts led by Mahesh Nandurkar.

The trade deal is a big relief for textile, seafood, gems and jewellery companies, which have a higher exposure to the U.S. market.

Among major textile companies, Gokaldas Exports, Trident, KPR Mill and Welspun Living will be in focus, while seafood exporters including Apex Frozen Foods and Avanti Feeds could also rise substantially.