Russian wheat export prices up on reduced supply, analysts cut January estimates

MOSCOW: Russian wheat export prices rose last week on limited supply from the Black Sea region and increased demand from importers, analysts said as they lowered their estimates for January exports due to poor weather conditions at ports.

The price for Russian wheat with 12.5percent protein content for free-on-board delivery in the second half of February was USD227.50 a metric ton at the end of last week, up USD2.50 from January 13, according to Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy.

The price increase is due to a shortage of Black Sea wheat in particular, and bad weather at ports, Rylko added.

Sovecon estimated the price for the same type of Russian wheat at USD226-USD228 a ton FOB, compared with USD225-USD227 at the end of the previous week.

“Black Sea values were slightly higher this week on recovering importer demand.

Domestic Egyptian prices have risen recently, making Russian wheat more competitive.

A strong rouble and limited post-holiday domestic supply also provided support”, Sovecon wrote in a weekly note.

Saudi Arabian state grains agency the General Food Security Authority said it had bought an estimated 907,000 metric tons of hard wheat in an international tender on Monday, confirming earlier reports from traders.

Sovecon lowered its estimate for January wheat exports by 0.2 million tons to 3 million tons and IKAR by 0.5 million tons to 3 million tons.

The wave of severe frost in Russia has not yet damaged crops thanks to significant snow cover, Sovecon analysts noted.

However, if forecasts of a second wave of extremely low temperatures prove accurate, soil temperatures could fall to critical levels of minus 12 degrees to minus 15 degrees Celsius (10.4°Fahrenheit to 5°F) or lower.

At such temperatures, winter crops may suffer from frost damage and winterkill, analysts say. Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut said on Friday she expected Russia’s 2026 grain harvest to exceed last year’s crop.