Gold hits near 3-week peak on rate cut bets, end to US shutdown

Gold extended gains to a near three-week high on Tuesday, helped by growing expectations of another US Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December and signs of an end to the US government shutdown.

Spot gold was up 0.7% at $4,142.83 per ounce by 0314 GMT, its highest since October 24.

US gold futures for December delivery rose 0.7% to $4,148.50 per ounce.

The US Senate passed a deal that would restore US federal funding and end the longest shutdown late on Monday.

Key economic indicators such as the US non-farm payrolls report have been delayed due to the federal government shutdown.

An end to the shutdown in the coming days will offer more clarity on the US economic outlook and the Fed’s interest rate path.

“The idea that the US shutdown is ending was really more met as lifting a level of uncertainty that gave markets permission to reengage with what has been one of the main speculative narratives this year,” said Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive.

“The bias for the rest of the year is at this point favoring the upside still. At this point, the path of least resistance for gold is back to October’s high, and then we might be heading higher thereafter.”

Last week, data showed the US economy shed jobs in October amid losses in the government and retail sectors.

US consumer sentiment weakened to a 3-1/2-year low in early November amid worries about the economic fallout from the longest-ever US government shutdown, a survey showed on Friday.

Traders are pricing in a roughly 64% probability that the US central bank will cut rates by 25 basis points next month, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

Fed Governor Stephen Miran said on Monday a 50-bps rate cut would be appropriate for December, noting that inflation is falling while the unemployment rate is drifting higher.

Non-yielding gold tends to do well in a low-interest-rate environment and during economic uncertainties.

Elsewhere, spot silver firmed 0.5% to $50.80 per ounce, platinum rose 0.3% to $1,581.60, and palladium climbed 1.2% to $1,431.45.