KARACHI: The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) has kicked off fiscal year 2026 at a record high, with the KSE-100 index surpassing the 130,000 points mark for the first time. The index closed the week of July 4, 2025, at 131,949 points, marking a 6.1 percent week-on-week increase.
A weekly snapshot of the PSX further highlights the positive trends. PSX Market Capitalization in Rupees grew by 5.6 percent from 15.062 trillion to 15.910 trillion. Ready board Average Daily Turnover (ADTO) jumped significantly by 31.4 percent from 736.31 million to 967.27 million shares, and in value terms it rose by 32 percent from Rs 31.33 billion to Rs 41.35 billion.
BRIndex100 increased by 761.71 points last week, closing at 13,435.90 points. This is up from 12,674.19 points the previous week. On average, 748.782 million shares were traded daily for BRIndex100. BRIndex30 also rose by 1153.6 points over the week, ending at 39,417.33 points while it finished at 38,263.73 points a week earlier. The average daily trading volume for BRIndex30 was 421.827 million shares
The strong start follows an impressive performance in FY25, where the PSX emerged as the best-performing market in the region, delivering a total return of 60 percent. The market maintained its bullish momentum, primarily driven by increased inflows into banking, provident/pension funds, savings, and fixed deposits. Equity investments saw a 7.15 percent increase, suggesting a reallocation of funds due to the recently approved finance bill.
On the external front, the momentum was significantly bolstered by positive market sentiment, driven by Pakistan securing $3.4 billion rollover/refinancing from China, complemented by an additional $1.5 billion loan from Middle Eastern commercial banks and multilateral institutions. Of these inflows, $3.7 billion have already been reflected in the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) foreign exchange reserves, pushing them to $12.7 billion. The SBP anticipates the remaining inflows to be reflected next week, which would further boost reserves to $14.51 billion.
In another positive news, the trade deficit saw a 9 percent month-on-month decline in June 2025, clocking in at $2.3 billion, though the overall FY25 trade deficit rise by 9 percent. Further contributing to the positive economic outlook are the recently released Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for June 2025, which came in at 3.2 percent year-on-year. This brings the average CPI for FY25 to a significantly lower 4.5 percent, a stark contrast to the 23.4 percent inflation recorded in FY24.
In a move aimed at fiscal management, the government reduced profit rates on National Savings Schemes (NSS) by approximately 15 to 59 basis points across various schemes. Meanwhile, the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) released tax collection figures for FY25, which stood at Rs 11.7 trillion, slightly missing the revised target by Rs 178 billion.
Moreover, the cement sector’s sales for FY25 reached 46.2 million tons, up 3 percent year-on-year. In last week, the Pakistani Rupee remained relatively stable against the US Dollar, closing at Rs 283.97.
Key sectors by volume show Banks dominating at 16 percent, Technology & Communication at 14 percent, Investment Banks and Food both at 8 percent, and Textile Spinning at 7 percent.
A detailed look at sector performance reveals that Banks led the gains with a 13.6 percent increase, followed by Engineering at 8.7 percent, Textile Composite at 7.6 percent, Technology & Communication sector at 6.7 percent, and Autos at 6.1 percent.
Other sectors that saw positive movement include OGMCS (5.2 percent), Fertilizer (4.3 percent), Pharmas (4.2percent), E&Ps (2.4 percent), Food (1.8 percent), Power (1.7 percent), and Chemical (1 percent). Conversely, Refinery (-0.4 percent) and Cement (-0.6 percent) experienced slight declines during the week.
The top gainers in the KSE-100 index for the week ending July 4, 2025, were Adamjee Insurance Company Limited (AICL), surging by 27.2 percent to Rs 62.60, followed by Faysal Bank Limited (FABL) Equity with a 26.1 percent gain to Rs 79.93 per share while Askari Bank Limited (AKBL) Equity increased by 20.8 percent to Rs 59.30.
On the other hand, the top losers in the KSE-100 included Bannu Woollen Mills Limited (BNWM), which declined by 11.9 percent to Rs 70.06, followed by Ghani Holding Global (GHGL) by 7.6 percent to Rs 41.11, and Pak-Gulf Leasing Company Limited (PGLC) by 5.3 percent to Rs 20.13.
Analysts noted that the outlook for the market remains positive in the coming weeks, with a projected forward inflation of 4.4 percent year-on-year for FY26, suggesting potential for monetary easing. This easing is expected to act as a significant catalyst for equities. The KSE100 is anticipated to continue its upward trajectory, with earnings growth expected to be primarily driven by improvements in fertilizers, sustained returns on equity in banks, and improved cash flows for E&Ps and OMCs.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
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