Pakistan’s inflation projected at 3-4% in June: Finance Ministry

Pakistan’s headline inflation is expected to stay within the 3-4% range in June, the Finance Division projected on Monday.

“Inflation is expected to remain within the range of 3-4% for June 2025,” the ministry said in its ‘Monthly Economic Update and Outlook’.

Pakistan’s headline inflation hit 3.5% on a year-on-year basis in May 2025, a reading higher than that of April 2025, when it stood at 0.3%, showed Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) data.

Earlier, JS Global, a brokerage house, projected Pakistan’s headline inflation to lower slightly, clocking in at 3.1% in June.

Meanwhile, the finance ministry in its report projected that the outlook for Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM) in the coming months appears positive, “supported by encouraging trends in high-frequency indicators such as cement dispatches and automobile sales”.

Moreover, the uptake in loans to private sector businesses suggests rising production activities and improved investor confidence.

“On the external front, higher remittances and exports will continue to keep the current account in surplus for FY 2025,” read the monthly outlook.

In FY2025

Pakistan’s economy continued growth momentum in FY2025, supported by strengthened macroeconomic fundamentals, prudent fiscal management, and improved external sector performance, read the report.

“Real GDP grew by 2.68%, while inflation eased steadily. Current account recorded a surplus of $1.81 billion, the fiscal deficit declined, and the primary surplus reached 3.2% of GDP in Jul-Apr FY2025.

“The ongoing IMF programs (EFF and RSF), along with upgraded credit ratings, bolstered policy credibility and investor’s sentiment,” it added.

Agri sector

As per the monthly outlook, for the Kharif season 2025–26, the federal government has set targets of 2.2 million hectares for cotton cultivation area and 10.18 million bales for production.

Meanwhile, farm input utilisation continues to improve, supported by government efforts to ensure the availability of quality seeds, adequate credit, machinery, and fertilisers.

For the Kharif season 2025, the estimated availability of urea and DAP stands at 4,012 and 840 thousand tonnes, respectively. Urea and DAP offtake in April 2025, reached 418 and 95 thousand tonnes, showing YoY increases of 4.6% and 135.2%, respectively, it added.