South Asia’s airpower–a strategic reset

Whether it was Alexander’s campaigns, Umayyad’s armies on the march, or even the cascading Mongols, the might of warfare has been a great determining factor in global relationships.

Pakistan has had its challenges on social and economic fronts, and often lost out to regional prowess, with an understanding that work is required for better stability. Who could have predicted May 10, 2025, when the tables were turned in a span of just a few hours – an aerial combat that redefined Pakistan’s contours on the regional and global maps.

The new equation, ignoring artistic excellence, puts falling Rafale as the trigger for a rising nation, giving way to a new ‘Renaissance’ – the new age of tactical versus numbers. And here Pakistan has come out to be a hero - a hero for its technological superiority and tactical expertise, a hero for its narrative, and a hero for its dignified stance.

The confrontation between the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) and Indian Air Force (IAF) will be analyzed by experts for years to come. What sets this engagement apart is the critical role of support elements, which proved to be just as important as, if not more than, the weapons, platforms, and pilots themselves.

This was, by no means, a traditional dogfight; no aircraft crossed the border, no pilot visually sighted the enemy, and Beyond Visual Range (BVR) missiles were launched from nearly 100 kilometers away. Yet, it was the seamless integration of support systems that truly defined the nature and outcome of this encounter.

Welcome to the new era of aerial warfare, which would contour training and operations of many aspiring air forces. A kill ratio of 6-0 to the credit of the PAF is testimony to their integrated weapon deployment, excellent training, and utilization of the entire spectrum of operations. The PAF, against all odds, has delivered a performance that has surprised even seasoned military analysts. It also speaks volumes of PAF’s leadership in an excellently articulated joint response.

This strategic analysis is only to explore emerging military dynamics based on current capabilities and doctrinal evolution. Rather than prediction, it offers informed scenario-building to support policy-making and regional planning, emphasizing restraint among nuclear rivals where even accidental escalation carries catastrophic costs.

India has long positioned itself as facing a two-front challenge from Pakistan and China, a narrative amplified across media platforms and echoed by Western analysts. This strategic framing portrays India as a victim of encirclement, providing diplomatic cover for military posturing. Yet, beneath this established narrative, a different operational reality appears to be emerging, one revealing unexpected tactical sophistication from Pakistan.

According to multiple Open-Source Intelligence Reports (OSINT) and defence analysts, the PAF has demonstrated remarkable operational prowess through precisely executed missions targeting high-value military assets. Coordinated strikes on over thirty IAF bases, brigade headquarters, weapon storage facilities, fuel depots, electronic warfare nodes, and radar installations across both the Line of Control (LoC) and international borders have been documented through satellite imagery validated by intelligence organizations.

What proves most striking is not the scope of these operations, but the apparent absence of effective Indian air defense response, a scenario difficult to reconcile with conventional military doctrine. “The lack of response is baffling,” observed a retired Western defence attaché familiar with the region. “India’s numerical advantage should translate to tactical readiness, but size means nothing without operational excellence.

The PAF has demonstrated speed, coordination, and notable restraint, hitting military targets without triggering civilian casualties or widespread panic.”

The institutional silence surrounding these developments reveals calculated information management. Indian authorities appear to be implementing a strategic communication blackout to maintain public morale, prevent panic, and avoid escalatory pressure. This approach combines editorial self-censorship with institutional guidance, redirecting media focus toward diplomatic dimensions and the China narrative rather than immediate operational realities.

Pakistan’s messaging, by contrast, remains measured yet unambiguous. As one senior PAF official noted, “We seek no escalation, but when provoked, we respond swiftly, decisively, and within our rules of engagement.” The PAF’s performance reflects increased precision in integrated air operations. Mission planning now incorporates Electronic Warfare support and battlefield surveillance through Airborne Early Warning and Control Systems.

Pilots operating Chinese-origin J-10C aircraft, equipped with PL-15 long-range air-to-air missiles, benefit from integrated battle management networks enabling real-time coordination between ground controllers and airborne assets.

This technological integration has enhanced situational awareness for Pakistani pilots while simultaneously denying the same advantage to the adversaries through electronic warfare attacks and communication disruption. Combat air patrols have demonstrated remarkable operational fluidity, transitioning seamlessly from defensive postures to offensive interdiction missions.

While we acknowledge the tactical advantages, Pakistan’s air command remains highly aware of strategic limitations, limited geographic depth, and dependence on foreign-sourced platforms. Add to it the growing risks of cyber and hybrid retaliation, the scenario would illustrate clear operational constraints for us.

We also understand that any prolonged engagement would severely test Pakistan’s logistical sustainability and maintenance capabilities, and that miscalculation could reverse tactical gains or trigger uncontrolled escalation. Conversely, we see huge cracks in the dominant Indian narrative becoming visible.

Writing on the defence blog Flight & Foresight, a former IAF Wing Commander acknowledged, “There exists a visible mismatch between our strategic posture and tactical readiness. The PAF caught us unprepared, and we continue attempting to explain it away as multi-front pressure.”

These developments challenge fundamental assumptions about regional air power dynamics. They demonstrate that numerical superiority does not guarantee operational dominance. It also highlights the critical importance of integrated command structures, rapid decision-making processes, and force-multiplier technologies over traditional metrics of military strength.

For South Asian security architecture, this setting demands urgent reassessment of outdated air doctrines, investment in distributed command systems, and the development of credible deterrence frameworks that transcend symbolic gestures.

For policymakers regionally and globally, the implications are unmistakable; it is clear now that tactical complacency in high-stake environments carries immense risks. Moreover, tactical victories, particularly in air operations, can rapidly transform into strategic miscalculations without calibrated restraint and robust political oversight, making extreme caution paramount.

History demonstrates that air superiority today provides no guarantee of control tomorrow, especially in regions as volatile and densely populated as South Asia, where escalation dynamics can shift unpredictably.

In a theatre long dominated by numbers and rhetoric, Pakistan appears to have achieved localized air superiority through velocity, vision, and validated capability rather than volume.

The strategic silence in New Delhi, contrasted with Islamabad’s measured confidence, reveals more than any official communiqué could convey. As the region approaches what may prove a pivotal de-escalation point, both nations, and the international community, must reflect not merely on conflict costs, but on the strategic clarity such situations demand.

For now, the skies are clearly blazoned with the ultimate truth; in the contested domain of air dominance, traditional assumptions no longer hold. The critical question remains whether policymakers are listening and what lessons will be learnt before the next chapter in this delicate strategic balance unfolds.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2025