MOSCOW: Russian wheat export prices fell last week as the new crop approached the market, with no confirmation of significant crop damage from past frosts, analysts said.
The price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board (FOB) delivery late March to early April down $2 to $247 per metric ton compared with the previous week, said Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy.
The Sovecon consultancy estimated prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content at between $249 and $250 per ton FOB for the middle of last week, compared with $249-$251 last week. New crop offers are around $234–235 per ton.
Sovecon raised its estimate for April wheat exports by 0.1 million tons to 2.3 million tons, still substantially lower than the 4.6 million tons exported in April 2024.
Trading activity on the domestic market is expected to remain limited during the first half of May, with May Day and Victory Day holidays in Russia on May 1–2 and May 8–9, the agency wrote in a weekly note.
IKAR has not yet changed its export estimates over 2.1 million tons for April wheat exports.
Rusagrotrans rail carrier raised its April export estimate to 2.3 million tons from 1.9 million tons due to stronger demand from Turkey, which shipped 355,000 tons in April, 2.3 times more than in March, and Iran with 270,000 tons (1.9 times more). The forecast for May exports is about 1.9 million tons.
Sovecon last week raised its forecast for Russia’s wheat export for the 2024/2025 and 2025/26 season, noting that under current circumstances it does not expect a significant acceleration of exports.
IKAR and SovEcon analysts do not believe that short-term frosts in the European part of the country were able to significantly damage crops. Winter wheat regions are expected to stay mostly dry this week, Sovecon analysts noted.
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