MOSCOW: Russian wheat export prices changed little last week, with new crop wheat priced lower than last year’s, while analysts are waiting to assess the impact of a cold snap in the southern regions of the country this week.
The price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in the latter part of May was up $1 to $249 per metric ton compared with the previous week, said Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy.
This primarily reflects the dynamics of the dollar rate, he said.
The Sovecon consultancy estimated prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content at between $249 and $251 per ton FOB, compared with $250-$252 last week.
“Expectations around a potential resolution in the Black Sea conflict continue to weigh on wheat markets,” Sovecon said in a weekly note. A peace settlement would potentially increase the supply of Russian wheat on export markets, leading to lower prices.
According to Rylko, potential buyers of new crop wheat estimate it at $235 per ton FOB amid generally declining world markets.
The assessment of the new crop may be affected by frosts expected today in Rostov and neighbouring regions, he said. The potential damage will be clear in a few days. The central part of the country and the Volga region have already experienced short-term cold snaps.
Sovecon also noted a deterioration in weather conditions for the new crop due to low levels of precipitation.
The pace of the sowing campaign this year is ahead of last year, the Russian Agriculture Ministry said. As of the end of last week, sowing was carried out on an area of 10.5 million hectares, which is
1.3 million hectares more than the same period in 2024.
In particular, spring grain crops have been sown on 6.3 million hectares (compared with 4.8 million hectares in 2024), including spring wheat on 1.7 million hectares.
Sovecon raised its estimate for April wheat exports by 0.2 million tons to 2.2 million tons, still substantially lower than the 4.6 million tons exported in April 2024.
IKAR’s estimate was raised to over 2.1 million tons from 1.6-1.7 million tons, mainly due to increased exports to Turkey.
IKAR estimate raised to over 2.1 million tons from 1.6-1.7 million tons, mainly due to increased exports to Turkey.
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