Trump-Putin duo all set to humiliate Europe

Donald Trump wants the Russia-Ukraine war to end as soon as possible. However, the President of Ukraine, along with the European Union and the UK, is unwilling to conclude the war, especially at this critical juncture, when the combined power of NATO member countries has successfully countered Russian advances into Ukraine and prevented the forced occupation of Ukrainian territory since the war began in 2022.

The war might not have started if NATO had not encouraged Ukraine to join the alliance. It could have also ended within three days had NATO not intervened in Ukraine’s defence under various pretexts. Resolving the war under the current circumstances would imply that Russia’s narrative has prevailed, exposing Ukraine and European countries as unjustified in plunging into the conflict.

This would be a humiliating retreat for the European leadership, who would face severe public backlash. Russia, in such a scenario, would hold a strong negotiating position.

The ensuing negotiations would determine the aggressor and quantify the cost of the war, which the responsible party—Ukraine and the European Union—might be required to pay.

The war (2022–2025) has imposed a heavy toll on both countries, with significant global ramifications. Russian military casualties range between 160,000 and 250,000 dead, with total losses, including wounded, exceeding 700,000, while Ukraine has suffered between 60,000 and 70,000 killed and around 400,000 total casualties.

Civilian deaths include approximately 12,500 in Ukraine and 388 in Russia. Economically, Ukraine has suffered $173 billion in commerce and industry losses, with total damages reaching $499 billion and requiring an estimated $524 billion for reconstruction.

Meanwhile, Russia’s economy contracted by 2.1% in 2022, losing $78.5 billion in energy exports due to sanctions, with $340 billion of its Central Bank reserves frozen.

The urgency Trump has created to end the war, combined with Ukraine and the European Union’s inability to counter Russian aggression without US support, will empower Russia to dictate its terms. These conditions could include Ukraine’s permanent withdrawal from NATO, compensation for Russia’s military and economic losses, the unfreezing of all Russian assets, and additional interest payments for any financial losses incurred due to sanctions.

Furthermore, Russia may demand an unconditional apology from the European Union for initiating and perpetuating the war, along with the restoration of Russian oil and gas exports to Europe to compensate for its economic setbacks.

Ukraine would also benefit from ending the war, as it would prevent further loss of life among its soldiers and civilians. However, the country would face significant financial challenges, as Europe has provided Ukraine with over $100 billion in loans, and the US is expected to demand repayment of its own $300 billion, likely in the form of rare and precious minerals. It is evident that Ukraine has already suffered immense losses, particularly in terms of human lives. If a peace agreement is signed under the current circumstances, especially with the pressure exerted by Trump in favour of Russia, Ukraine may face unfavorable terms. Additionally, the country will require billions in loans to rebuild its war-torn infrastructure.

For the United States, resolving the war would yield significant advantages second only to Russia. It would lead to a historic improvement in US-Russia relations, expanding defence and trade ties with one of the world’s largest economies rich in mineral resources and technological advancements.

The US would also save billions of dollars currently allocated to Ukraine and NATO funding, allowing it to redirect its foreign policy away from Europe’s confrontational stance toward China. This realignment could facilitate stronger economic and investment relations between the US China, and Russia, ushering in an era of global stability and prosperity.

While all efforts toward peace are underway, no one can be certain of the final outcome.

However, Europe is not like any third-world country; it consists of wealthy and resourceful nations. If pushed to the wall, these countries have the means to compensate for the gap left by the potential departure of the US from NATO or its withdrawal from involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war.

Such a move would deal a massive setback to American leadership in Europe, and the vacuum left by the US would likely be filled either by European nations themselves or by another global power with the financial and military strength to do so—something that took the US centuries to achieve.

European leaders now face a political nightmare, as their well-informed, outspoken public will not tolerate another destructive war that brings economic hardship, inflation, poverty, and unemployment. If the war ends now, European taxpayers will bear the cost of compensating Russia and funding Ukraine’s reconstruction, placing enormous financial strain on the continent.

This failure to pursue peace and the resulting economic devastation could shake the very foundations of the European Union. If Russia dictates the terms of peace, many European leaders may face political downfall, humiliation, and the end of their careers.

Moreover, this would be the first time Europe experiences what many other nations have faced—being abandoned by the US. While European powers previously supported US-led wars that devastated other countries, they now face the repercussions of being sidelined. If the war ends on Russia’s terms, Europe will lose US favouritism and be treated as just another region rather than a privileged ally.

That said, Trump’s unpredictability remains the biggest factor in shaping the war’s outcome. His rapid shift from war-monger to peacemaker within days of assuming office has stunned analysts and strategists alike.

Two likely scenarios emerge: If Trump maintains his current peace-driven stance throughout his presidency, global geopolitics could shift towards stability, fostering economic growth, reducing military expenditures, and promoting long-term prosperity. However, if he reverts to his past war-mongering policies, as some analysts predict, the world could once again plunge into conflict, inflicting untold suffering on the global population.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2025