NEW YORK: US natural gas futures eased about 1% on Friday on forecasts for the weather to remain mild through late November, keeping heating demand low and allowing utilities to keep injecting more gas than usual into storage for a couple more weeks.
There is currently about 6% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. Analysts projected utilities this week would add more gas than normal into storage for a fourth week in a row for the first time since October 2022.
Prior to the last few weeks, storage injections had been smaller than usual for 14 weeks in a row because many producers have reduced drilling activities so far this year after average spot monthly prices at the US Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low in March. Prices have remained relatively low since then, dropping to a 23-year low in October.
Front-month gas futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 2.4 cents, or 0.9%, to settle at $2.669 per million British thermal units.
That put the contract up less than 1% for the week after it gained 4% last week and 13% two weeks ago.
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 US states slid to 100.7 billion cubic feet per day so far in November from 101.3 bcfd in October. That compares with a record 105.3 bcfd in December 2023.
On a daily basis, output over the past four days fell by 2.0 bcfd to a preliminary five-month low of 99.6 bcfd on Friday. Analysts have noted that preliminary data is often revised later in the day.
Recent output declines were due mostly to pipeline issues and curtailments in the Gulf of Mexico for Hurricane Rafael.
The US National Hurricane Center projected Rafael would circle around the middle of the Gulf of Mexico as it weakens into a tropical storm over the weekend and becomes a tropical depression as it heads near Mexico next week.
Even though Rafael was not expected to make landfall in the United States, several US energy firms still curtailed oil and gas output from their offshore Gulf of Mexico platforms.
The US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said energy firms cut Gulf of Mexico gas production by about 11% on Friday, up from 10% on Thursday. But unlike 20 years ago, when 20% of US gas production came from the federal offshore Gulf of Mexico, that offshore region only produces about 2% of the country’s gas. That 11% of gas curtailed only represented about 0.2 bcfd.
Meteorologists projected the weather in the Lower 48 states would remain warmer than normal through at least Nov. 23. But even warmer-than-normal weather in late November was still colder than warmer-than-normal weather in early November.
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