Before I tackle the article I seek permission to reproduce a joke that I read in the Reader’s Digest, Circa 1964: “A water stream flows in a parched desert in the Middle East. A Black Widow spider is at a river bank hoping to go across. But he cannot swim. A frog happens to be swimming in the stream.
The spider hails the frog and asks if the frog will ferry him to the other side. “Never”, says the frog, “you will sting me”. The spider replies “but then we will both die. I assure you of my best behaviour.” A deal is reached. The frog is swimming with the spider on his back heading to the other edge. Midway, unable to contain the killer instinct, the spider plunges his poisoned claws into the frog.
As they are both drowning the frog screams “why, why?” The spider’s last words are “It’s the Middle East”. The story has relevance to the current conflict.
Amidst the genocide some realities are emerging. Genocide is OK. Even desirable, if it backed by the Big Powers. These landmark decisions shall re-emerge to haunt the world.
The USA, Israel’s patron-in-chief, is suffering from imperial overreach. The two most important institutions in the USA are showing signs of distress. Corporate America is suffering from boycott. So far, a billion plus dollars with more to follow have been lost. The Pentagon is alarmed at the number of hot spots it has to deal with. The Pentagon, which has an operating budget of $800 billion, is asking for more and more financing. By comparison, the State Department has a budget of approximately 70 billion dollars. Power flows accordingly.
The endgame has begun. Israeli Jews are exiting. No family can stay in such abnormal, hostile conditions.
The Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) are over-deployed. The IDF will not lose – they are too well equipped. But the war of attrition will bite the civil Jewish population – except for a few die-hards. By 2048 (100 years of existence), in my opinion, Israel will be empty of Jews. Then who will IDF defend? They will probably be demobilized or become a mercenary army.
The Jews in Israel created a great infrastructure. Before 1945 the area was a virtual swamp owned by absentee landlords. The Jews launched a grand nation-building effort. Education, healthcare, ports, airports, industrial parks, defence, etc. It was a nation- building effort, unmatched in history. But there was no benefit for the Arab citizens.
The only comparable effort was in the UAE, starting early in 1970s. But there is a difference between the two – Israel built a survival state, the UAE built a leisure state, a comfort state.
By 2048, ninety percent of civilian Jews will have exited to safe havens. The Exodus in Reverse. The Arabs (various factions) will move in with glee to occupy the magnificent infrastructure. But the halcyon days will only last four or five years. Central authority will vanish. The state will disintegrate into 10 or 12 quarters, reporting to their regional patrons – Iran, Iraq, Syria, Turkey, Lebanon, Saudia, the UAE, etc., etc. The Palestinian (Arab) Spring will be short-lived. The next 100 years till 2148 have to be full of the usual stuff – jealousy, hate, intrigue, treachery.
Remember the spider and the frog.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2024
The writer is a former Executive Director of the Management Association of Pakistan
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