US natural gas prices ease

NEW YORK: US natural gas futures eased about 1% on Friday ahead of the long US Labor Day holiday weekend on bearish forecasts for slightly less heat over the next two weeks than previously expected, which should reduce the amount of gas power generators burn to keep air conditioners humming.

That price decline came despite a bullish rise in gas flows to liquefied natural gas export plants with the return to nearly full service of Freeport LNG’s plant in Texas following an unexpected shutdown on Wednesday.

Another factor that has weighed on gas prices for much of this year was the tremendous oversupply of fuel left in storage after a mild winter.

There was still about 12% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year even though injections have been smaller than usual in 15 of the past 16 weeks after extremely low prices in the spring prompted several producers to cut output.

Front-month gas futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 1.0 cent, or 0.5%, to settle at $2.127 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Thursday, the contract closed at its highest since Aug. 21.

For the week, the front-month was up about 5% after falling about 5% last week.

For the month, the contract was up about 4% after falling about 22% in July, the biggest monthly decline since January 2023.

In the spot market, pipeline constraints caused next-day gas prices at the Waha hub in the Permian Shale in West Texas to fall to an all-time low and average in negative territory for a record 32nd time this year.

Waha prices first averaged below zero in 2019. It happened 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020 and once in 2023.

Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 US states slid to an average of 102.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in August, down from 103.4 bcfd in July.

Meteorologists forecast weather across the country would remain mostly hotter than normal through Sept. 14. Energy traders, however, noted that hot weather at the start of September would only average around 77 degrees F (25.0 degrees Celsius), versus 83 F (28.3 C) at the start of August.

LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will fall from 105.9 bcfd this week to 103.0 bcfd next week and the week after. The forecast for next week was higher than LSEG’s outlook on Thursday.

Gas flows to the seven big US LNG export plants rose to an average of 12.8 bcfd so far in August, up from 11.9 bcfd in July. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.

In Canada, LNG Canada said it expects to introduce gas to its 1.8-bcfd facility under construction in Kitimat, British Columbia, for the first time as it prepares to start up the plant and ship its first LNG cargoes by the middle of 2025.

Looking ahead, Berkshire Hathaway Energy’s 0.8-bcfd Cove Point LNG export plant in Maryland will likely shut for about three weeks of routine annual maintenance around Sept. 20, according to the plant’s history and notices to customers.