MUMBAI: The Indian rupee is likely to trade with a slight weakening bias on Tuesday in the wake of losses in Asian peers and expectations of subdued portfolio flows.
Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open marginally lower against the US dollar compared with 83.2375 on Monday.
The dollar index inched up and Asian currencies were broadly lower, lead by the Korean won.
“Think it (USD/INR) will be bid today. The overall direction has a bit of an upward bias and the first week of the year is unlikely to have the kind of inflows we have seen,” a forex spot trader at a bank said.
Inflows into India equities and bonds climbed in December, helped by mounting expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, possibly this quarter itself.
Equities witnessed inflows of nearly $8 billion in December and $2 billion flowed into debt, the highest monthly tally for both in 2023.
Despite the flows, the rupee was nearly unchanged month-on-month.
The Indian central bank’s regular intervention has kept the rupee in a narrow range, prompting volatility to plunge.
Indian rupee ends little changed, traders await fresh triggers
“One thing interbank will be hoping for in 2024 is decent two-sided moves,” the trader said. Focus this week will be on a host of US economic data, including data on job openings and nonfarm payrolls.
Minutes from the last Fed meeting in December are scheduled for release on Thursday, which alongside the data releases will provide insights on how well-placed the rate cut expectations are. Investors have priced in six Fed rate cuts this year.
“Easing US inflation and resilient economic conditions continue to feed into dovish Federal Reserve expectations and soft landing hopes,” Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG Asia, said.
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