TOKYO: The 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield retreated on Friday, leading a fall across maturities as JGB yields tracked a decline in US Treasury yields overnight.
The benchmark JGB yield slid from a fresh decade peak of 0.885% hit on Thursday, falling as low as 0.865%.
It last stood at 0.87%. The 20-year JGB yield was down 1 basis point to 1.655%, while the 30-year JGB yield ticked 2 basis points (bps) lower to 1.83%.
The decline in yields, which move inversely to bond prices, mirrored a fall in US Treasury yields overnight, following weaker-than-expected US inflation and disposable income data which boosted expectation that US interest rates are around their peak.
Japanese yields could continue their fall if US yields stay down heading into next week, said Hiroshi Namioka, chief strategist at T&D Asset Management.
JGB yields climb to fresh decade highs in run-up to BOJ meeting
Both the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the US Federal Reserve hold their monetary policy meetings next week.
The five-year yield edged down 1 bp to 0.375%. Speculation about the BOJ potentially making a tweak to its yield curve control (YCC) policy at its October meeting had pushed up JGB yields to fresh multi-year highs this week.
The BOJ, which uses YCC to guide the 10-year Japanese government bond yield, raised the de-facto cap on the yield to 1% from 0.5% in July.
If the BOJ does adjust its YCC policy at the upcoming meeting, that could put upward pressure on yields again, according to fixed income strategist at AXA Investment Managers, Ryutaro Kimura, who sees the chance of the bank raising the YCC ceiling as “high”.
“However, the magnitude of this pressure will depend on whether a more positive assessment of achieving the inflation target in the near future is indicated in the statements or in (BOJ) Governor Ueda’s press conference,” he said.
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