Economic rebound to continue, says finance ministry

The reopening of economic activity and acceleration in the vaccination process would likely continue the rebound in economic activity in coming months, said the Ministry of Finance.

“Pakistan economy has shown significant signs of economic recovery with fast resumption of economic dynamism," stated the Monthly Economic Update & Outlook June 2021 of the Ministry of Finance.

"In the recent budget 2021-22, the government has taken growth-oriented initiatives and will continue to follow the positive reform momentum which will help boost the competitiveness of Pakistan’s economy and lay a strong foundation for a more robust, inclusive and sustainable recovery."

Pakistan‘s inflation rate expected to remain 8-9.5pc in April

The report said that the trade deficit together with the structural deficit in the primary income balance is largely financed by the inflow of remittances and other secondary income receipts from abroad. “Taking all these into account, the current account balance is expected to show a deficit of around $ 0.5 billion by the end of the current fiscal year,” it said.

The outlook said that the growth momentum has lead to an expected strengthening of the export performance. “Exports of goods and services are expected to exceed $3 billion in June 2021. With imports expected to be about double the level of exports, the trade balance may settle at around $3 billion,” it said.

The CPI inflation decelerated to 10.9 percent in May 2021 compared to 11.1 percent in the previous month due to a fall in fuel, electricity and food prices. During July-May FY 2021, consumer inflation was recorded at 8.8 percent compared to 10.9 percent in the corresponding period a year earlier.

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“In June, new price impulses may come mainly from recent increase in international food and oil prices, following the observed strong recovery of the world economy. But due to government interventions, the pass-through into domestic price is expected to be limited,” said the report.