US natgas ease on forecasts for reprieve from cold snap

US natural gas futures retreated on Wednesday after scaling an over three-month peak in the last session as the market looked past the deep freeze to forecasts for warmer weather next week that could offer a respite from soaring demand for heating.

Front-month gas futures fell 1.8 cents, or 0.6%, to $3.111 per million British thermal units at 10:10 a.m. EST (1510 GMT). Prices jumped over 10% on Tuesday to hit a high since Nov. 3 at $3.214

"Market expects weather to moderate into normal going into March, allowing it to look past the current cold period," said Daniel Myers, market analyst at Gelber & Associates in Houston, adding prices will be susceptible to selling in the coming days as temperatures ease.

"Storage is going to get drawn down significantly over the next two weeks."

Unusually freezing weather is likely to wreak havoc on US oil and gas production for several days, if not weeks, according to industry experts, as companies deal with frozen equipment and a lack of power to run operations.

The deep freeze left millions without power along the US Gulf Coast, causing power prices to surge, especially in Texas - the country's biggest oil and natural gas producer. Next-day power for Wednesday at the ERCOT North hub , which includes the cities of Dallas and Fort Worth, spiked to a record of $8,800 per MWh, a nearly sixfold jump from $1,490 on Tuesday.

Data provider Refinitiv estimated 401 heating degree days (HDDs) over the next two weeks in the Lower 48 US states, slightly down from Tuesday's forecast of 425 HDDs.

The normal is 374 HDDs for this time of year. HDDs measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is below 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius). The measure is used to estimate demand to heat homes and businesses.

Meanwhile, Refinitiv projected average demand, including exports, would ease to 122.2 to billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) next week from this week's 144.4 bcfd, while staying above the five-year average of 107.2 bcfd.

Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 has averaged 86.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February, down from 91.1 bcfd in January, due in part to the freezing of some wells. Output hit an all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019.