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Arabica prices seen rising by end-2021 as deficit looms

  • Arabica prices will end 2021 at $1.35 per pound, up 7.7% from Monday's close (Feb.1) and 5.3% above levels seen at the end of 2020, based on the median forecast of survey participants.
  • Top producer Brazil enters an off-year in its biennial crop cycle in the upcoming 2021/22 season.
Published February 2, 2021
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LONDON: Arabica coffee prices will end this year nearly 8% above current levels as the market moves to price in a deficit next season after working off the current surplus, a Reuters poll of 11 traders and analysts showed.

Arabica prices will end 2021 at $1.35 per pound, up 7.7% from Monday's close (Feb.1) and 5.3% above levels seen at the end of 2020, based on the median forecast of survey participants.

Top producer Brazil enters an off-year in its biennial crop cycle in the upcoming 2021/22 season and respondents expect a crop of 55.51 million 60-kg bags, down from 69.0 million bags in the current season.

That will leave the arabica market with a deficit of 8.5 million bags next season, though the market is expected to have a surplus of 8 million bags this season.

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