NEW YORK: US natural gas futures slipped more than 3% to a two-week low on Thursday, weighed down by forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand than previously expected. Front-month gas futures fell 9.0 cents, or 3.5%, to settle at $2.518 per million British thermal units, their lowest close since December 10.
For the week, the front-month dropped nearly 6%. The market will be closed on Friday for Christmas Day.
"The natural gas market is under continued pressure and the market is starting to realize that the Arctic blast that hit the US is not going to stay for long," said Phil Flynn, a senior analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago.
"Compared with forecasts from earlier in the week, now it doesn't look like it's going to stay cold," he added.
Data provider Refinitiv estimated 433 heating degree days (HDDs) over the next two weeks in the Lower 48 US states, below the 30-year average of 457. HDDs measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is below 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius). The measure is used to estimate demand to heat homes and businesses.
Refinitiv projected average demand, including exports, would slip from 124.3 billion cubic feet per day last week to 119.4 bcfd this week before rising slightly to 126.2 bcfd next week.
The amount of gas flowing to US LNG export plants, meanwhile, has averaged 10.7 bcfd so far in December, which would top November's 9.8 bcfd record. Output in the Lower 48 US states has averaged 91.0 billion bcfd so far in December. That compares with a seven-month high of 91.1 bcfd in November 2020 and an all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019.
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