Covid: Fatality fears

There will not be a lockdown. The message is loud and clear from the government. It is crystal clear on what end of the spectrum does the federal government stand on the life vs livelihood debate. Without going into the merits and demerits, that is the stance that the government continues to take. And it has good reasons too, as the first wave proved much less lethal than everybody expected and was also ridden much quicker than what everyone feared. And the bending and the subsequent flattening of the curve carried on smooth for three months, with only limited restrictions and what the government terms “smart” lockdown in place. Much credit for that.

The second wave seems like it is just warming up. And the numbers do not make a good reading. All theories that once raised hopes of Pakistan’s march towards achieving herd immunity, also backed by published studies, have now been laid to rest.

The rise in positivity rate is alarming as it is – as it has climbed from average 2.2 percent in October to 6 percent in November. The daily positivity rate has been hovering around 7 percent for the last one week. Testing has also gone up, as there is anecdote of more people showing symptoms than in the first wave – which could also be a factor of the cold weather that brings with it the conventional forms of cough and flu.

That the positivity rate is still one-third of what was seen at the peak of the first wave, should not be a cause of comfort. The fact that it is rising, and that the range is comfortably in the danger zone, which signifies the spread is out of control – should lead to more measures. Commercial activities are going on almost unbated, and that could change as Pakistan goes deeper into winters.

The worrying sign is the fatality rate. More people are dying as a percentage of active cases. More people are on ventilators as a percentage of active cases. More people are dying on ventilators than they were during the first peak. Whether it is the temperature, or virus mutation, can be best left to the experts – but the signs are telling.

While 300 ventilators occupied across the country does not sound alarming – it must be noted that almost 75 percent of cases are coming from only five cities. And while Pakistan may be still some distance away from the peak level seen in the first wave – some of the larger cities are much closer at 17-20 percent of positivity rate. The pressure on the healthcare system is already being felt in big cities. With a lockdown out of the equation, doing the bare minimum cannot be overemphasized. It is high time that not wearing a mask in public is made a punishable offense.