For Americans and millions of people around the world, waiting for US Presidential Election results was a nail-biter, a slow-moving march towards the other side of the exhausting Trump universe. But that agony, which is over for now, may look easy compared to the months of uncertainty that now lie ahead. Analysts in Pakistan, and elsewhere, may be better served to assess likely implications of Joe Biden’s election with a nuanced understanding of what has or hasn't changed in America over past week.
Do not expect a new President to suddenly turn around and announce major changes to foreign policy. Some rather unprecedented challenges face this new administration. And Biden’s focus over the next year will likely be consumed by the burning needs to bring the raging pandemic under control, stimulate economic recovery, and bridge political divides between rural and urban America. No other US President has had to deal with the mess that awaits Biden. So, forgive Biden if he puts foreign policy on a backburner. In any case, the US allies seem relieved just realizing that Trump won’t be there anymore to berate them over security rents and tariffs.
But first comes the significant matter of getting to the White House in peace. Wiser counsel must prevail among Trump’s Republicans, otherwise the election aftermath has produced conditions that are ripe to descend America into chaos. Donald Trump, who is only the third incumbent President to be defeated during re-election in almost a century, hasn’t conceded the race. Instead of de-mobilizing his ardent supporters, he has doubled down on allegations of voting fraud. This underscores the challenges confronting a peaceful transition. Legally, there is not much that Trump and Co. can do to stop Biden from taking over the reins of US government come January 20. But the political climate stands vitiated.
Biden had campaigned on the message to unite America, and even in victory he has reaffirmed his commitment to be the President for all Americans. This is admirable and exactly what America needs at this moment of peril. The voters have nudged Biden beyond the finish line, but by no means is it a landslide. Democrats are not in a position to argue that there is a clear mandate for their liberal agenda. Biden himself hasn't taken radical policy positions during the campaign; he is more a middle-of-the-road kind of politician. This opens up an opportunity to pursue a centrist agenda that benefits all Americans.
But once into the Oval Office, Biden will face the challenges of governing, for he is the only US President since 1988 to start the first term with the opposition party controlling the Senate. Maybe the two Senate seats in Georgia, which are going to a runoff vote, will help Biden’s cause in the Senate by the time he takes over. But the likelihood is low. The opposition part controlling the Senate will affect Biden’s choice of cabinet appointments, as a Republican Senate will not confirm candidates that are deemed too liberal or partisan.
Whether Senate Republicans will cooperate with Democrats on issues such as pandemic relief, tax reform, immigration overhaul, debt sustainability, infrastructure development, and systemic racism is a big question. The bipartisan Biden has a history of charting compromises, but don’t be surprised if Republicans repeat their Obama-era obstructionism to try and make Biden a one-term President. If Democrats are unable to convince enough Republicans to vote for common-sense reforms, it will render the Biden administration lame duck, kicking the stalemate back to voters in midterms in November 2022.
In short, Biden will be administering a divided government that will have limited capacity to resolve domestic agenda in the first two years. Amid the domestic firefighting, he will need an experienced professional or politician to serve as his Secretary of State, who will have the unenviable task of reassuring the world that America is not turning its back on global alliances, treaties and institutions.
There is the question of implications for Pakistan, and it is now time to address it by keeping the above situation in mind. On the positive side, Biden’s decades of engagements with Pakistan (first as a US Senator and then as Obama’s VP), his old relationship with politicians in this country, and his nuanced understanding of the South Asia region are all potentially an asset for future US-Pakistan bilateral relationship at a time when the US is all stick and no carrot.
Let’s walk down the memory lane. Biden had made several trips to Pakistan in both his Senate and VP roles. He was awarded Hilal-e-Pakistan, a top civilian award, in October 2008, by then newly-elected President Zardari to acknowledge Biden’s advocacy for Pakistan. When then newly-elected President Obama undertook the “Af-Pak” review in 2009 to turn around the war in Afghanistan, Biden opposed the “troop surge”; instead he reportedly argued that Pakistan be incentivized through more aid and trade opportunities. Biden also had a key role in the passage of the Kerry-Lugar-Berman Bill in late 2009.
What perhaps doesn't help Pakistan’s case is that, years later, those old relationships and regional understandings now confront new circumstances and challenges. And the Afghan-lens with which the US used to view Pakistan now has a counterpart, the Chinese-lens. America’s bipartisan consensus on “containing” China is driving its partnership with India in the Indo-Pacific region, and it won’t change under Biden. While the Biden administration is expected to criticize the Modi government on the Hindu Supremacist agenda, it won’t be enough to pacify Pakistani policymakers watching India being armed.
Although it is not a zero-sum-game where India-US relations accrue direct losses to Pakistan, it seems that Pakistan’s geopolitical relevance is going to be judged in the light of its relations with China. And this is where the policymakers at home need to be careful on how and whether to balance Pakistan’s relations with US and China. Be that as it may, Biden’s election is still a net positive for Pakistan, given that Trump’s China hawks were taking a more hardline position on Pak-China economic partnership. Under a Biden administration, there won’t likely be a resumption of aid. But Pakistan is not likely to be asked to choose sides between US or China either. Now that’s a blessing Pakistan should be thankful for any day.
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