Markets

Latam FX, stocks lose steam after rally but set for weekly gains

  • Latam stocks set for best week in five months.
  • Brazilian real outperforms Latam peers for the week.
  • Oil-linked currencies make hefty gains during the week.
Published November 6, 2020

Latin American currencies and stocks lost some steam on Friday after rallying all through the week, benefiting from an upbeat mood in emerging markets as Democratic candidate Joe Biden inched close to winning the US presidential vote.

Currencies in Latin America including the Mexican peso and some Asian currencies have gained through the week as they are seen as benefiting from the potential departure of President Donald Trump from the White House.

The peso, which was particularly hit by the Trump administration's hard line on trade and drive to keep jobs in America, shed 0.5% on Friday, falling for the first time in four sessions. The currency is still set to rise nearly 2% this week.

Brazil's real weakened 0.1% after gaining sharply in the last two sessions resulting in the currency rising 3.5% so far in the week, outperforming its Latin American peers.

The real was buoyed by general optimism in emerging markets about a Biden victory and encouraging data from its industrial and services sectors through the week.

"The prospect of Joe Biden winning the US Presidential elections has buoyed sentiment in financial markets and the real was able to benefit from that," said You-Na Park-Heger, FX and emerging markets analyst at Commerzbank.

"Despite the fact that Biden becoming President would not necessarily be beneficial for Brazil, as the Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro considers himself an ally of Donald Trump... however, for now the move in USD-BRL is dominated by general market sentiment."

As more votes were counted from battleground states in the US election, investors also considered the prospect of a divided Congress which has boosted expectations that the burden of economic stimulus over the months ahead would remain with the Federal Reserve funneling money into the financial system.

The more bonds the Fed buys, the more it tends to trickle to higher-yielding emerging markets like Mexico, Indonesia or South Africa.

A jump in commodity prices recently, including oil, has helped currencies of Colombia and Russia. The Russian rouble is, however, expected to weaken if Trump loses the presidency.

The MSCI's index for emerging market stocks and its Latin American counterpart are set for their best weekly gains in five months. The Latam stocks index is up 8.7% this week.

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