US natgas futures ease with weather expected to turn milder

US natural gas futures eased on Wednesday on forecasts confirming the weather will turn milder over the next two weeks.

That price decline came despite a continued rise in liquefied natural gas exports and a drop in output to its lowest in over two years after producers shut-in wells before Hurricane Sally smashed into the Gulf Coast.

Sally knocked out power to over 430,000 homes and businesses in Alabama and Florida when it hit the Alabama coast early Wednesday. The storm will stay far from any operating LNG export plants as it moves toward Georgia and South Carolina.

Front-month gas futures fell 3.7 cents, or 1.6%, to $2.325 per million British thermal units at 9:08 a.m. EDT (1308 GMT).

Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 US states was on track to fall to 84.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Tuesday, its lowest since August 2018, due to Sally-related shutdowns. The US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) said almost 0.8 bcfd, or 28%, of Gulf of Mexico gas production was shut-in on Tuesday.

With cooler weather coming, Refinitiv projected demand, including exports, would fall from 85.2 bcfd this week to 81.8 bcfd next week.

The amount of gas flowing to US LNG export plants, meanwhile, has averaged 5.3 bcfd so far in September. That was the most in a month since May and was up for a second month in a row for the first time since hitting a record 8.7 bcfd in February as global gas prices rise, making US gas more attractive following months of US cargo cancellations due to coronavirus demand destruction.

Cameron LNG's export plant in Louisiana, however, has remained shut since Aug. 27 due to lingering power outages from Hurricane Laura. Some analysts say the plant could remain shut through mid October.