The Pakistan Tehrrek-i-Infsaf rally near the Quaid's mausoleum on Sunday was a joyous festival for the thousands of enthusiastic young men and women waving flags and singing along with the broadcast party songs. Their unanimous opinion was that it was a historic moment for Karachi which had never seen such a manmouth political rally before.
It swamped me with nostalgia for my young days when, like them, I was one of the thousands in Nishtar Park waving and cheering "Bhutto Zindabad!" Every promise he made was greeted with loud cheering. We hardly noticed the tedium of standing about for hours. There was only standing space in the Park, but there was no pushing, no rage and no consciousness of tiredness until it was all over. Then we headed for the coldspot Topsy's where I slaked my parched throat with two cold Cokes. I was a junior journalist in my twenties. I declared to the seniors with whom I had gone to the public meet, that we had witnessed a historic moment; Bhutto was sure to win hands down at the 1970 general elections. The seniors simply smiled cynically. Perhaps the meet had swamped them with nostalgia for their own young days when they cheered the Muslim League in the 1940s.
I wonder if I, in my turn, was smiling cynically as my young neighbours animatedly described Imran Khan's rally. I prayed Imran Khan would live up to his promise in the next general elections and that he would not turn against Karachiites, as Bhutto had done, should he fail to win seats in this metropolis.
If he does not win anything, or too few seats to matter, from Karachi, political analysts, who these days are likely to point a finger at the MQM and Jamaat-i-islami for throwing a spanner the works. But in 1970 there was no MQM and the JI had practically no political ambition; yet Bhutto did not do well in Karachi. He swept the polls in the Punjab. Sindh largely ignored him.
Public meets or rallies are not the yardstick by which to measure the future of a political party in general elections. What one can measure is the popularity or unpopularity of a political party by the number of people who attend a rally or meet. From last Sunday's show there can be no doubt that Imran Khan's star is ascendant. He is the most popular politician in Pakistan today.
He is quite confident he will win a thumping majority in the next elections. He talks of "when" he comes to power he will do this or that. He should say "if" because popularity does not guarantee success. It sounds arrogant to say "When I come to power I will do this and this." It also indicates that he thinks he is the only one who matters. If the PTI is a one-man party then it is not a democratic party in a clean sense; it will be like other one-man or one-family led parties.
He has been joined by deserters from the PPP and PML-N, all of whom are vetran politicians who have given more importance to their personal political opinion rather than party policy. At least each one of them stated that to be the reason why they deserted the party they were in to join the PTI. It means the only loyalty they have is to themselves. They do not look "lean and hungry" like "Cassius in Shakespeare's "Julius Caesar", nevertheless, "such men are dangerous".
A lot of Karachiites did not go to the rally but watched it on television. Does this make Imran Khan's support in the city far more massive than the physical presence of thousands at the rally? Each channel has logged thousands of viewers of their coverage of the rally and the accompanying talk shows. The electronic media coverage seemed as enthusiastic as the young men and women at the rally. It boiled down to mere hype rather than astute political analysis.
If they imagine the large TV viewership of the rally is proof of massive support for Imran Khan, they are wrong. Who watched the rally on television? It was not the young people, they were at the actual show and, for once the young were disinterested in virtual reality. Those who viewed the rally on television were mostly old people who probably will not vote in the next election as it can be exhausting standing in the polling queues. There must have been many people from other parties curious to see Imran Khan in action.
A question remains: Will Imran Khan win a majority in the next general elections? On the one hand, his chances are good, not because he is good but because the majority of voters today are below 25-years-old. On the other hand, his chances are not so good because most of these young are not registered voters and the next elections will most likely be according to the 2008 voters list since the Election Commission has done nothing to update the list or strike off the names of the dead. However one looks at the situation, the next election ought to be quite exciting.
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