A year out, Republicans in heated bid for White House

The issues likely to motivate voters in the 2012 elections are already obvious, even if the names on the US ballot are far from certain. With unemployment hovering near 9 percent and the economy in the doldrums despite US President Barack Obama's stimulus measures, pocketbook concerns are paramount.
Polling organisation Gallup found 69 percent of Americans surveyed think the economy is getting worse, while only 25 percent see it improving. That bodes ill for Obama, with 50 percent of respondents saying they disapprove of his job performance.
But who will win the conservative Republican Party's nomination to face Obama? Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney has long been considered the opposition party's heir apparent, after a strong showing in the last nominating cycle. But conservatives have been reluctant to rally behind him, instead turning their attention to a procession of other candidates and potential candidates they feel better represent their views or would have better appeal.
Texas Governor Rick Perry made a relatively late entry into the crowded Republican field, quickly soaring past Romney, only to see his popularity plummet within weeks. Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann had an early, shortlived phase in the spotlight. Some sought unsuccessfully to lure New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, known for his tough budget policies and blunt style, into the race. Most recently, businessman Herman Cain, the only African-American in the race and a plain-speaking man with no political experience, has risen to the top in many opinion polls. But the former Godfather's Pizza chief executive has little organisation on the ground in key states and is now being plagued by allegations of sexual harassment decades ago.
The surge for Cain, who until recently wasn't seen as a serious candidate, can be pegged in part to "the anybody-but-Romney problem that the Republicans seem to have," Democratic political consultant Paul Begala told CNN. National polls show Cain leading Romney both nation-wide and in the key early state of Iowa, which holds its caucuses January 3. Romney, however, is far ahead of everyone in New Hampshire, which holds the first true primary on January 10 and has unusual sway in picking a candidate, given its population of just 1.3 million.
Still, polls can be deceiving so far ahead of the vote - at this point in the 2008 electoral cycle, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani lead national polls, but he failed to win even one primary. Part of the flux in polls may have to do with discomfort over Romney, who some feel is too moderate for the economic conservatives within the so-called Tea Party wing of the Republican Party and who created a statewide healthcare plan similar to a national plan pushed by Obama.
His opponents have gleefully cited Romney's changing stances on key issues during his political career. "Romney, supposedly the Republican most electable next November, is a recidivist reviser of his principles who is not only becoming less electable; he might damage GOP chances of capturing the Senate," conservative commentator George Will wrote in one particularly scathing critique.
"Republican successes down the ticket will depend on the energies of the Tea Party and other conservatives, who will be deflated by a nominee whose blurry profile in caution communicates only calculated trimming." Other candidates have sought primarily to distinguish themselves from Romney.
"I have been a consistent conservative," Perry said in a television interview, pointing to his stance on top issues for many Republicans, including gun rights and opposition to abortion. "And Mitt has been on both sides of those issues ... We are very, very different from the standpoint of consistency on those issues that I've just mentioned."
Romney, who took more centrist positions on social issues while serving as governor of the north-eastern state of Massachusetts, normally a Democratic bastion, has defended himself by pointing to differences at the state and federal level.
Columnist and former George W Bush speech writer, Michael Gerson, wrote: "It has been Mitt Romney's successful strategy to keep a low profile, emerging periodically for fluent debate performances, while the conservative meteors streak and fade." But whether Romney's star ultimately rises will depend largely on his ability to focus the nomination fight on the pocketbook issues driving the national debate, and to convince voters he is best prepared to fix them.